基于动态调整FCFF模型的光伏企业价值评估——以阳光电源为例
Photovoltaic Enterprise Valuation Based on Dynamically Adjusted FCFF Model——Taking SUNGROW as an Example
洪水峰 1李红丹 1赵明明 1罗伊敏1
作者信息
- 1. 中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉 430074
- 折叠
摘要
碳中和背景下,光伏成为促进全球能源转型和经济高质量发展的支柱产业.本文通过研究光伏企业特征和关键价值驱动因素,对现有评估方法进行比较分析,选取自由现金流量模型作为基础模型.针对FCFF模型的不足,引入灰色新陈代谢模型提高盈利预测的客观性和精确度;同时,考虑资本结构和风险系数β的时变特征,对传统静态折现率做出改进,确保不同时期现金流量和折现率之间的匹配性;采用蒙特卡洛模拟技术估计永续期现值,以动态的随机过程还原光伏企业未来面临的不确定性,进而构建出一种兼顾企业短期与长期发展的动态FCFF模型.通过案例分析对阳光电源进行估值,以期为光伏市场交易提供价值评估参考.
Abstract
Under the context of carbon neutrality,the photovoltaic becomes a pillar industry that promotes global energy transformation and high-quality economic development.This paper compares and analyzes existing valuation methods by studying characteristics of photovoltaic companies and their key value drivers,thus selecting the free cash flow model(FCFF)as the basic model.Introduce the gray metabolizing model to improve the objectivity and accuracy of profit forecasting;at the same time,considering the time-varying feature of capital structure and risk coefficientβ,the traditionally static discount rate is improved to ensure the compatibility between cash flow and discount rate in different periods;moreover,use Monte Carlo simulation technology to estimate the present value of the perpetual period,restoring the uncertainty faced by photovoltaic enterprises in the future through a dynamic stochastic process.Then a dynamic FCFF model that takes both short-term and long-term development into account can be constructed.Afterwards,expand a case analysis on the valuation of Sungrow,in order to provide value evaluation reference for photovoltaic market transactions.
关键词
光伏企业/价值评估/灰色新陈代谢模型/蒙特卡洛模拟/动态折现率Key words
Photovoltaic enterprise/Value evaluation/Gray metabolic model/Monte carlo simulation/Dynamic discount rate引用本文复制引用
出版年
2023
NETL
NSTL
万方数据