Analysis of Inconsistency between Earnings Forecast and Operating Performance——High probability、Analysis of Causes、Definition of Responsibility and Improvement suggestions
Based on the evaluation date,the prediction in the income approach for asset appraisal is stochastic,while the operating performance is based on historical facts.All operating performance data are objective and single,so it is more likely to have inconsistency and even significant differences between the future operating performance and the prediction comparing the actual numbers with random numbers.The reasons for this inconsistency include the responsibilities of asset appraisers,as well as prediction theory,evaluation technology,and enterprise business decision-making implementation.Only through a comprehensive and systematic analysis of the reasons for the inconsistency between the two data sets can it be meaningful to compare them and define relevant responsibilities.The single-point estimation expression form of income prediction and evaluation conclusions can objectively guide relevant parties to compare the prediction and operating performance data,which has a non-positive impact on asset appraisers and asset appraisal agencies.This article suggests that in the income approach asset appraisal,the income prediction and asset appraisal conclusions should use a combination of diversified point estimation and interval estimation to make the income prediction and evaluation conclusions more consistent with future operating performance,making the asset appraisal conclusion more reasonable and explanatory.
Earnings forecastthe operating performanceDefinition of responsibilityImprovement suggestions
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
