Risk prediction of patients with ureteral calculi complicated with urinary sepsis admitted to intensive care unit after operation
Objective To investigate the risk warning indicators for postoperative admission to the intensive care unit(ICU)in patients with ureteral calculi combined with urinary sepsis.Methods The clinical data of 288 patients with ureteral calculi combined with sepsis diagnosed and treated in the First Hospital of Fujian Medical University from October 2020 to October 2023 were retrospectively analyzed,including gender,age,length of hospitalization,clinical conditions[body mass index(BMI),diabetes,hypertension,systemic inflammatory response syndrome(SIRS)score,sequential organ failure assessment(SOFA),quick SOFA(qSOFA)],general indicators[white blood cell count(WBC),body temperature,respiratory rate,heart rate],and degree of hydronephrosis.The patients were divided into two groups:those admitted to the ICU and those not admitted to the ICU after the operation.The differences in the above clinical data between the two groups of patients were compared.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were used to screen out the risk factors affecting the admission of patients with ureteral calculi combined with sepsis to the ICU,and the receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC curve)of the subjects was plotted to analyze the predictive efficacy of each risk factor on the admission of patients to the ICU.Results Finally,263 patients were enrolled,out of which 43 patients(16.35％)were admitted to ICU,and all patients recovered and were discharged.Compared with the group not admitted to the ICU,the length of hospitalization in the group admitted to the ICU was significantly longer(days:8.42±1.50 vs.5.51±1.19),and the proportion of patients with diabetes mellitus,the SIRS score,the SOFA score,the qSOFA score,the proportion of patients with body temperatures>39.4℃ or<35.8℃,respiratory rate>20 beats/min,heart rate>90 bpm,and the proportion of patients with severe hydronephrosis were all significantly higher[diabetes mellitus:44.19％(19/43)vs.27.27％(60/220),SIRS scores:3(2,4)vs.2(1,3),SOFA score:7(5,9)vs.4(3,6),qSOFA score:2(1,3)vs.0(0,1),and body temperature>39.4℃ or<35.8℃:44.19％(19/43)vs.25.91％(57/220),respiratory rate>20 beats/min:37.21％(16/43)vs.21.82％(48/220),heart rate>90 bpm:48.84％(21/43)vs.29.55％(65/220),severe hydronephrosis:72.09％(31/43)vs.17.28％(38/220),all P<0.05].Multivariate Logistic regression analyses showed that SOFA score,qSOFA score,and degree of hydronephrosis were independent risk factors for admission to the ICU,with odds ratios(OR)of 1.486,3.546,and 4.423,respectively,along with 95％confidence intervals(95％CI)of 1.146-1.925,1.949-6.543,and 2.355-8.305,P values were 0.003,<0.001,<0.001.ROC analysis showed that,the AUC of SOFA score was the largest of 0.824,the AUC of qSOFA was similar to that of SOFA(0.802 vs.0.824),and the specificity of hydronephrosis was the highest of 82.7％.The joint diagnosis of qSOFA and the degree of hydronephrosis were combined to establish a joint prediction model.The goodness-of-fit test was performed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test,revealingχ2=8.942,P=0.257>0.05.This indicated that the predictive model of the joint index was well calibrated,and the ROC curves showed improved diagnostic efficacy of the joint index and were superior to that of the SOFA score(AUC:0.889 vs.0.824,P=0.047).Conclusion The qSOFA and the degree of hydronephrosis were independent risk factors for postoperative ICU admission in patients with ureteral calculi combined with urinary sepsis,and the combined diagnosis of the two may provide a good early warning of the risk of ICU admission in such patients.
Ureteral calculi complicated with urinary sepsisAdmission in intensive care unitRapid sequential organ failure assessmentHydronephrosisRisk factor
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