Assessment on Spatiotemporal Changes of Agricultural Plastic Pollution in China from 2000 to 2019
Agricultural plastic pollution causes serious ecological and environmental problems,but the spatial distribution pattern of agricultural plastics and the influencing factors of their temporal changes lack refined evaluation and attribution.Based on an available index model,the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of agricultural plastic pollution sources in China are inverted and evaluated in this paper,mainly plastic films,fertilizer bags,and pesticide bottles,from 2000 to 2019,and nine key social-ecological impact indicators are selected,and combined with the least squares method,geographic weighted model,and random forest method,a global-local scale attribution analysis is conducted on the changes in agricultural plastic waste.The results show that the quantity of agricultural plastics mentioned above in China shows a trend of increasing-stabilizing-decreasing,with its spatial clustering and regional differences gradually weakening during the research period.The factors that affect overall agricultural plastic pollution are ranked in descending order of importance:total power of agricultural machinery,precipitation,sowing area of grain crops,added value of primary industry,sunshine hours,domestic patent application acceptance,and rural population.The impact factor coefficients of local scale agricultural plastic pollution are similar to the spatial distribution characteristics of overall scale factors,but their spatial clustering characteristics significantly weaken over time.The research results have scientific reference value for implementing dynamic monitoring,impact assessment,and prevention and control strategies of agricultural plastic pollution,and can provide data support.
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