Prediction and Analysis of Carbon Emission Peaks in Guangdong Province Based on STIRPAT Model
In order to effectively reduce carbon emissions and respond to climate change,China plans to achieve carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.Guangdong province is the largest province in China's economy,and predicting and analyzing its future carbon emissions is of great significance for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality.This paper fully considers the impact of various factors on carbon emissions,constructs a STIRPAT model,uses data from 1998 to 2019 as samples for ridge regression,and obtains the carbon emission prediction equation for Guangdong province,and sets three scenarios by using scenario analysis method.The results indicate that Guangdong province is unable to achieve the carbon peak target before 2030 under the baseline scenario,but can successfully achieve this goal under the low-carbon scenario and strengthened low-carbon scenario.
carbon emissionspeak predictioncarbon peakcarbon neutralitySTIRPAT modelscenario analysisGuangdong province
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
