Driving Factor Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Emission in Shaanxi Province
The carbon emission coefficient method is used to measure the carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province from 2000-2021 and to study the driving factors,on the basis of which a prediction is made and five emission reduction paths are explored.The results of the study show that Shaanxi Province's carbon emissions show an upward trend from 2000-2021;the drivers are economic development,energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,urbanization rate,and population size;Shaanxi Province can achieve carbon peak under three scenarios:high carbon,baseline,and low carbon,and the carbon emissions are 6.968 5×108 t,6.636 6×108 t,6.314 5×108 t.Therefore,it is of practical significance to rationally plan the development process,emphasize technological progress,and strictly control the proportion of industry and energy structure in order to successfully achieve the goal of carbon peaking in Shaanxi Province.
carbon emissiondriving factorStochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology(STIRPAT)modelscenario forecasting
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