陕西省碳排放驱动因素分析及预测
Driving Factor Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Emission in Shaanxi Province
李思瑶 1汪红梅1
作者信息
- 1. 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西 杨凌 712100
- 折叠
摘要
采用碳排放系数法测算 2000-2021 年陕西省碳排放量并研究驱动因素,在此基础上进行预测并探索出 5 条减排路径.研究结果表明:陕西省碳排放量在 2000-2021 年呈上升趋势;驱动因素作用排序为经济发展、能源结构、能耗强度、产业结构、城镇化率以及人口数量;陕西省在高碳、基准、低碳 3 种情景下均可实现碳达峰,碳排放量分别为6.968 5×108 t、6.636 6×108 t、6.314 5×108 t.因此,合理规划发展进程,注重技术进步,并严格控制产业和能源结构比例,对于陕西省顺利实现碳达峰目标任务具有现实意义.
Abstract
The carbon emission coefficient method is used to measure the carbon emissions in Shaanxi Province from 2000-2021 and to study the driving factors,on the basis of which a prediction is made and five emission reduction paths are explored.The results of the study show that Shaanxi Province's carbon emissions show an upward trend from 2000-2021;the drivers are economic development,energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,urbanization rate,and population size;Shaanxi Province can achieve carbon peak under three scenarios:high carbon,baseline,and low carbon,and the carbon emissions are 6.968 5×108 t,6.636 6×108 t,6.314 5×108 t.Therefore,it is of practical significance to rationally plan the development process,emphasize technological progress,and strictly control the proportion of industry and energy structure in order to successfully achieve the goal of carbon peaking in Shaanxi Province.
关键词
碳排放量/驱动因素/可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估(STIRPAT)模型/情景预测Key words
carbon emission/driving factor/Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology(STIRPAT)model/scenario forecasting引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据