Analysis on characteristics and prediction of death among Chinese population with accidental injury from 2005 to 2021
Objective To analyze the characteristics of accidental injury death among Chinese population from 2005 to 2021 and predict its trends from 2022 to 2031.Methods Based on the China Death Surveillance Database,the accidental injury death data of Chinese population from 2005 to 2021 were collected.The overall accidental injury death of Chinese population during the period was calculated,such as crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate.A Joinpoint regression model was applied to calculate the standardized mortality rate including the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)of accidental injury death among Chinese population of different genders,in urban and rural areas,age groups and eastern,central and western regions from 2005 to 2021.The standardized mortality rate of accidental injuries among Chinese population from 2022 to 2031 was predicted by using the exponential smoothing method.Results From 2005 to 2021,the crude mortality rate of accidental injury among Chinese population decreased from 45.96/100 000 in 2005 to 39.97/100 000 in 2021,with the standardized mortality rate decreasing from 50.20/100 000 in 2005 to 30.74/100 000 in 2021,which showed a monotonous downward trend(APC=AAPC=-2.63,P＜0.01).From 2005 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury in males was higher than that in females,showing a downward trend in both males and females(AAPCmale=-2.85,AAPCfemale=-2.17,P＜0.01).From 2005 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury in rural population was higher than that in urban population,showing a downward trend in both urban and rural population(AAPCcity=-2.39,P＜0.01;AAPCrural=-2.58,P＜0.05).From 2005 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury in Chinese population mainly fell in the age group of 15-44 years.From 2005 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury in the western region was higher than that in the eastern and central regions and there was an inflection point from up to down in the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury in the western and central regions in 2011.As the forecasting results showed,the standardized mortality rate of accidental injury among Chinese population would be reduced from 30.26/100,000 to 20.93/100,000 from 2022 to 2031.Conclusions The standardized mortality rate of accidental injury among Chinese population from 2005 to 2021 shows a downward trend.Moreover,the male,rural,young and middle-aged population and population in the western region are still the key groups needing prevention of accidental injuries.There will also be a downward trend in the standardized mortality rate of accidental injuries in Chinese population from 2022 to 2031.
Wounds and injuriesDeathForcastingAccidental injury
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
