河北省2013-2022年百日咳流行特征及时空聚集性
Epidemiological and spatial-temporal clustering characteristics of pertussis in Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022
郑飞 1孙印旗 2张海霞 2张洪斌 2何宝花 2贾肇一 2李琦2
作者信息
- 1. 华北理工大学公共卫生学院,唐山 063210
- 2. 河北省疾病预防控制中心,河北省传染病病原鉴定分析与流行病学重点实验室,石家庄 050021
- 折叠
摘要
目的 分析2013-2022年河北省百日咳流行特征及时空聚集性,为完善百日咳防控措施提供参考依据.方法 基于2013-2022年河北省报告的百日咳数据分析流行特征.应用ArcGIS 10.8软件进行空间自相关分析以及环形地图制作;运用SaTScan 10.1软件进行时空扫描分析.结果 河北省2013-2022年累计报告百日咳6 715例,无死亡病例,年均报告发病率为0.90/10万.2013-2019年发病率总体呈上升趋势,2020-2021年呈大幅下降趋势,但2022年呈骤增趋势.夏、秋两季为流行的高发季节,发病占比最高的年龄组为＜1岁(48.67％),占比最低的年龄组为≥15岁(0.45％),以散居儿童为主(78.03％),男性发病率高于女性.空间自相关分析表明,百日咳的发病具有空间聚集性,并且高-高聚集区存在于报告发病率前3位的廊坊市、保定市和沧州市.低-低聚集区与本研究对应疾病低发地区的分布基本一致.时空扫描探测出5个差异有统计学意义的区域,并且有3个聚集区集中在2022年.结论 河北省2013-2022年百日咳发病具有明显的人群、地区、季节差异,且存在明显的时空聚集性,须加强对重点区域的监测并采取针对性防治措施.
Abstract
Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal epidemiological characteristics of pertussis from 2013 to 2022 in Hebei Province and to provide a reference for improving prevention and control measures.Methods Based on the data of pertussis reported in Hebei Province during 2013-2022 to analyze the popular characteristic,the ArcGIS 10.8 software was used to construct a ring map and to perform spatial autocorrelation analysis;the SaTScan 10.1 software was used for spatial-temporal scan statistics.Results There were 6 715 cases of the cumulative report in Hebei Province from 2013 to 2022 without death.The annual report incidence was 0.90/100 000.The overall incidence rate showed an upward trend from 2013 to 2019,and during 2020-2021,it showed a sharp decline,but in 2022,it showed a sharp increase.Summer and autumn are the peak seasons of the epidemic.The incidence was highest in age group＜1 year(48.67％),and the lowest age group in age group ≥15 years(0.45％)and mainly scattered children(78.03％);the incidence about men is higher than women.Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the onset of pertussis has spatial clustering,and high-high clusters were found in Langfang,Baoding,and Cangzhou,the top three countries with reported incidence.The area covered by a low-low cluster was consistent with the distribution of the corresponding low-incidence areas in this study.Space-time scan detects five statistically significant areas,and three zones were concentrated in 2022.Conclusions The incidence of pertussis in Hebei had obvious season,population,and area-specific differences.There was obvious spatiotemporal and clustering,so the control of key areas should target the characteristics of time and space.
关键词
百日咳/流行特征/时空聚集性Key words
Pertussis/Epidemiological characteristic/Spatial-temporal clustering引用本文复制引用
基金项目
河北省医学科学研究课题计划(20210177)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据