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电商平台内付费流量情景下产品销量预测研究

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当前,电子商务发展迅速,竞争愈发激烈,准确的销量预测对企业降低库存成本、优化营销策略至关重要.付费流量成为电商平台商家追捧的对象,但关于付费流量对销量影响的研究较少,且不同渠道付费流量对销量影响的细分研究仍然空白,如何判断渠道流量优劣仍缺少解决方案.为了细化研究不同渠道的付费流量对销量的影响并提高销量预测的准确性,本文提出DCA-OLSTM模型.利用淘宝平台的真实数据进行实验,结果表明,加入付费流量特征可以提高销量预测准确性,且不同渠道付费流量对销量预测的影响程度不同,商家可选择高权重值的付费流量渠道,仅供参考.
Research on Product Sales Forecasting under Paid Traffic Scenarios on E-commerce Platforms
The rapid development of e-commerce and increasing competition make accurate sales forecasting crucial for companies to reduce inventory costs and optimize marketing strategies.Currently,paid traffic has become a favored option for merchants on e-commerce platforms.However,there is limited research on the impact of paid traffic on sales,and there is a lack of detailed studies on the effects of paid traffic from different channels on sales.Additionally,there is no solution for assessing the quality of traffic from these channels.To refine the study of the impact of paid traffic from different channels on sales and improve the accuracy of sales forecasts,we propose the DCA-OLSTM model.Using real data from the Taobao platform,experiments show that incorporating paid traffic features can improve the accuracy of sales forecasts,and that paid traffic from different channels has varying degrees of impact on sales predictions.Merchants can choose paid traffic channels with higher weight values.Finally,comparative experiments demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms other models in terms of accuracy.

paid traffice-commercesales forecastingLSTMtraffic by channel

姚宁

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合肥工业大学管理学院 安徽 合肥 230000

付费流量 电子商务 销量预测 LSTM 渠道流量

2025

中国商论
中国商业联合会

中国商论

ISSN:2096-0298
年,卷(期):2025.34(1)