Objective To analyze the risk factors of gastrointestinal injury induced by acute cerebral infarction in the elderly and build a prediction model.Methods One hundred and fifty-nine elderly patients with acute cerebral infarction admitted to the Department of Geriatrics of Fuyang People's Hospital from September 2021 to October 2023 were included.According to the ratio of 3∶1,159 patients were divided into a training set(n=119)and a validation set(n=40).According to the occurrence of gastrointestinal injury in the training set,the patients were divided into the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group.The clinical data of the two groups were compared,and Logistic multivariate regression was used to summarize the related factors inducing gastrointestinal injury.Based on the risk factors,the Nomogram model was established,and the efficiency of the model was verified by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and the decision curve analysis(DCA)was drawn.Results Among the 119 patients in the training set,53 patients suffered from gastrointestinal injuries,the incidence rate was 44.54%,and the gastrointestinal injuries of patients were mainly Grade Ⅰ-Ⅱ.There were 18 cases of gastrointestinal injury in the verification group,the incidence rate was 45.00%,and there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups(χ2=0.003,P=0.959).Logistic multivariate regression analysis showed that the infarction site was cerebellum,brain stem or thalamus and abnormal blood sodium were independent risk factors for gastrointestinal injury induced by acute cerebral infarction in the elderly(P<0.05).The internal verification results of Nomogram model based on risk factors showed that the AUC of training set and verification set were 0.881 and 0.867,respectively.Kolmogorov-Smimov goodness-of-fit test results showed that the calibration of the model was good(χ2=3.879,R2=0.926,P>0.05).DCA results showed that the decision curves of training set and test set were above All and None in the threshold range of 10%-88%.Conclusion The risk of gastrointestinal injury in elderly patients with acute cerebral infarction is high,which is related to the location of infarction,blood sodium level abnormal.The Nomogram model based on risk factors has good efficiency and high net yield,which can provide reliable reference for risk assessment of gastrointestinal injury.
Acute cerebral infarctionThe elderlyGastrointestinal injuryRisk factorsPrediction model
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NSTL
万方数据
