Construction and application effect of risk factor model for intestinal mucosal barrier function damage induced by sepsis
Objective To construct a risk factor model of intestinal mucosal barrier function damage induced by sepsis and verify its application effect.Methods A total of 351 patients with sepsis admitted to Dongguan People's Hospital from March 2021 to September 2023 were divided into training group(n=246)and verification group(n=105)according to the ratio of 7:3.Acute Gastrointestinal Injury Classification(AGI)was used to evaluate the damage of intestinal mucosal barrier function,and the abnormal rate of gastrointestinal function was recorded,and the clinical data of patients with normal gastrointestinal function and abnormal gastrointestinal function in training group were compared.Logistic multivariate regression analysis was used to summarize the risk factors of intestinal mucosal barrier function damage induced by sepsis,and the risk factors were included in Nomogram prediction model.A prediction model to predict the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)of intestinal mucosal barrier function damage in the validation group was drawn,Bootstarp method and clinical decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to verify model calibration.Results The incidence of intestinal mucosal dysfunction in training group and validation group was 52.85％and 54.29％,respectively,and there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups(P＞0.05).Logistic multivariate analysis showed that elevated acute physiological and chronic health status scores Ⅱ score,C-reactive protein,procalcitonin,blood lactic acid,heart failure,hypotension,shock and mechanical ventilation were all independent risk factors for intestinal mucosal barrier function damage induced by sepsis(P＜0.05).The area under the curve of Nomogram model based on risk factors was 0.854 and 0.810 when applied to training group and verification group,and the sensitivity and specificity when applied to verification group were 80.70％and 81.25％,respectively.DC A analysis shows that the clinical net yield of the model was high.Conclusion The risk of intestinal mucosal barrier injury induced by sepsis is high,which is related to the patient's condition,inflammatory reaction,complications and treatment strategies.The prediction model based on the above factors can provide reliable reference for the risk assessment of intestinal mucosal barrier function injury in patients.
万方数据
维普
