Factors Affecting In-Hospital Mortality in Children With Severe Pneumonia and Construction of a Risk Prediction Model
Objective To study the relevant factors affecting the in-hospital death of children with severe pneumonia and construct a Nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 130 children with severe pneumonia hospitalized in Weifang Maternal and Child Health Hospital from January 1,2019,to December 31,2022,were selected and divided into a survival group ( 95 cases ) and an in-hospital death group ( 35 cases ) according to whether they died in the hospital.The relevant clinical data of the children were collected.A multifactor logistic regression model was constructed to analyze the risk factors of in-hospital death in children with severe pneumonia,and a Nomogram column chart was developed.The feasibility of the model was evaluated by internal validation and efficacy assessment through ROC curves.Results Of the 130 children included in the study,35 children died during hospitalization.Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that CRP ( OR=1.206 ),PCT ( OR=12.975 ),LDH ( OR=1.010 ),PT ( OR=1.800 ),and D-D ( OR=5.072 ) were independent risk factors for mortality.The model was internally validated,and the results showed that the area under the curve of the Nomogram prediction model for in-hospital mortality in children with severe pneumonia was 0.940 ( 95％ CI:0.903～0.977 ),with a sensitivity of 97.14％,a specificity of 78.95％,a cutoff value of 0.18,and a Yoden index of 0.76.Conclusion The results indicated that CRP,PCT,LDH,PT,and D-D were independent risk factors for death during hospitalization in children with severe pneumonia.The Nomogram prediction model based on these factors provides individualized risk prediction for children with severe pneumonia in a concise and intuitive manner,demonstrating good clinical efficacy.
ChildrenSevere pneumoniaMortalityLogistic modelROC curveArea under the curve
万方数据
维普
