首页|基于气象因子对水位、流量的研究

基于气象因子对水位、流量的研究

扫码查看
为研究 2020 年、2022 年高温干旱极端气候条件下,永嘉楠溪江夏、秋两季出现的严重水文干旱现象,利用 2001-2020 年NECP再分析资料(分辨率 2.5°×2.5°)整理分析副热带高压近 20 a变化情况;分析(2000-2022 年)西太平洋夏季副热带高压形态参数同平均水位的相关性;整理统计分析永嘉石柱水文站水位、流量资料(2000-2022 年)及永嘉气象站的气象历史资料(2000-2022 年);利用逐步回归分析,发现气候拐点月份(5 月、8月)的部分气象要素气候统计值和副热带高压参数对夏、秋两季石柱水文站平均水位预测具有指示意义,可建立回归模型应用与季节平均水位的预测.水位预测模型对今后温州北部地区水资源合理利用与管理提供一定的决策依据.
Research on Water Level and Flow Based on Meteorological Factors
This paper aims to study the severe summer/autumn hydrological droughts of the Nanxi River in Yongjia under the climate conditions of high temperature and drought in 2020 and 2022.NECP reanalysis data(resolution 2.5°×2.5°)from 2001 to 2020 was used to sort out and analyze the change of the subtropical high in the past 20 years;to analyze the correlation between the morphological parameters of the western Pacific summer subtropical high(2000-2022)and the average water level(2000-2022);and to analyze the water level and flow data of the Shizhu Hydrological Station at Yongjia and the historical meteorological data of Yongjia Meteorological Station(2000-2022).Using stepwise regression analysis,it is found that some meteorological elements of climate statistics,and subtropical high-pressure parameters in the climate inflection point months(May and August)have indicative significance for the prediction of the average water level of Shizhu Hydrological Station in summer and autumn,and the application of regression model and the prediction of seasonal average water level can be established.This water level prediction model has important practical significance for northern areas of Wenzhou City in the future.

NECP reanalysis dataclimatic statistics of meteorological elementssubtropical high parametersShizhu Hydrological Stationstepwise regression model

周建辉、戴益斌、应子健、张静静、徐婵婵

展开 >

永嘉县气象局,浙江 永嘉 325100

永嘉县水利局,浙江 永嘉 325100

NECP再分析 气象要素气候 副热带高压 石柱 逐步回归模型

2024

浙江水利科技
浙江省水利河口研究院 浙江省水利学会

浙江水利科技

影响因子:0.294
ISSN:1008-701X
年,卷(期):2024.52(2)
  • 6