This paper aims to study the severe summer/autumn hydrological droughts of the Nanxi River in Yongjia under the climate conditions of high temperature and drought in 2020 and 2022.NECP reanalysis data(resolution 2.5°×2.5°)from 2001 to 2020 was used to sort out and analyze the change of the subtropical high in the past 20 years;to analyze the correlation between the morphological parameters of the western Pacific summer subtropical high(2000-2022)and the average water level(2000-2022);and to analyze the water level and flow data of the Shizhu Hydrological Station at Yongjia and the historical meteorological data of Yongjia Meteorological Station(2000-2022).Using stepwise regression analysis,it is found that some meteorological elements of climate statistics,and subtropical high-pressure parameters in the climate inflection point months(May and August)have indicative significance for the prediction of the average water level of Shizhu Hydrological Station in summer and autumn,and the application of regression model and the prediction of seasonal average water level can be established.This water level prediction model has important practical significance for northern areas of Wenzhou City in the future.
关键词
NECP再分析/气象要素气候/副热带高压/石柱/逐步回归模型
Key words
NECP reanalysis data/climatic statistics of meteorological elements/subtropical high parameters/Shizhu Hydrological Station/stepwise regression model
维普
万方数据