Fenshui River belongs to the Qiantang River system,and it is the largest tributary of the left bank of the lower reaches of the Qiantang River.The basin area is 3 444 km2,and the mainstream length is 164.2 km.The flood forecast divides the Fenshui River Basin into 48 sub-basin units,and calculates the runoff and confluence with the semi-distributed Xin'anjiang model.Through the topological structure of the Fenshui River Basin,the Muskingum model is used to calculate the flood forecast of 4 large and medium-sized reservoirs such as the Fenshuijiang Reservoir and 10 key forecast sections,and the SCE-UA algorithm is used to optimize the parameters.In the process of distributed flood forecasting,the parameter transplantation scheme of multiple regression method is adopted through the basin eigenvalue and calibration results of the calibrated section.After step-by-step calculation,the qualified rate of 44 floods in Fenshuijiang Reservoir is 100%,and the simulation error is within the allowable error.The deterministic coefficient is above 0.7,of which 19 are above 0.9,and the flood forecasting scheme meets the B-level accuracy standard.
关键词
洪水预报/半分布式新安江模型/流域拓扑关系/多元回归法/参数移植
Key words
flood forecasting/semi-distributed Xin'anjiang model/topological relationship of watershed/multiple regression method/parameter transplantation
维普
万方数据