Research on Flood Probabilistic Forecast Method Considering Error Distribution Hyperparameters
To solve the problem of heterogeneity for the errors in flood forecast,a new probability flood forecast method considering hyperparameters of forecast error distribution is proposed to improve the accuracy and reliability of flood forecast,and applied to the flood forecast of Meishan Reservoir.The results show that,from the aspect of accuracy indicators,the introduction of hyperparameters for forecast error distribution has improved the accuracy of probability flood forecast to a certain extent,but the magnitude is limited.In terms of reliability,the coverage rate of probability flood forecast methods considering hyperparameters of forecast error distribution is basically over 0.9,while the increase in interval dispersion is small.This indicates that the introduction of forecast error distribution hyperparameters enables probability forecast to better cover the true values within a smaller probability interval,which means higher prediction reliability.
万方数据
维普
