首页|基于Mann-Kendall检验的香港鲗鱼涌地区降水与潮位变化趋势分析

基于Mann-Kendall检验的香港鲗鱼涌地区降水与潮位变化趋势分析

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香港鲗鱼涌地区是受气候与潮位变化影响较大的敏感区域.为研究降水量与潮位变化对该区域的影响情况,收集2006-2023年铡鱼涌潮汐站观测的降水量与潮位数据,运用Mann-Kendall检验法分析降水量和潮位的年际、年内变化规律及突变特征.研究结果表明:2006-2023年,铡鱼涌地区多年平均降水量2 274.11 mm,平均潮位1.46 m,年内降水量分配不均匀,而年内平均潮位较均匀.年际尺度上,降水量变化较大,平均潮位变化较小,总体呈上升趋势:季际尺度和月际尺度上,潮位和降水量的变化趋势各异;年际潮位在2007-2008年出现突变特征,而年际降水量未出现突变特征.研究结果可为香港鲗鱼涌地区水资源管理和气候变化的应对决策提供科学依据.
Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Tide Level Changes in Quarry Bay,Hong Kong Based on Mann-Kendall Test
The Quarry Bay area in Hong Kong is a sensitive area affected by climate and tide level changes.In order to study the impacts of precipitation and tide level changes on this area,this paper collects precipitation and tide level data observed at the Quarry Bay tidal station from 2006 to 2023,and analyses the inter-annual and intra-annual patterns of changes in precipitation and tide level,as well as their abrupt changes,using the Mann-Kendall test.The results show that,from 2006 to 2023,the annual mean precipitation in Quarry Bay is 2 274.11 mm,and the mean tide level is 1.46 m.The distribution of annual precipitation is not uniform,while the mean tide level is more uniform.The variation of precipitation on the inter-annual scale is large,and the variation of the mean tide level is small,with a general upward trend.On the inter-seasonal and inter-monthly scales,the tide level and precipitation have different varying trends.The inter-annual tide level showed an abrupt change in 2007-2008,while the inter-annual precipitation did not show any abrupt change.The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for water resource management and climate change response in Quarry Bay,Hong Kong.

Mann-Kendall trend testQuarry Bay areaprecipitationtide levelmutation test

邵柯泽、徐欧官、曹俊博、洪豪杰

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浙江水利水电学院信息工程学院,浙江 杭州 310018

浙江省农村水利水电资源配置与调控关键技术重点实验室,浙江 杭州 310018

Mann-Kendall趋势检验法 鲗鱼涌地区 降水量 潮位 突变检验

2024

浙江水利科技
浙江省水利河口研究院 浙江省水利学会

浙江水利科技

影响因子:0.294
ISSN:1008-701X
年,卷(期):2024.52(6)