中国高等教育人口的发展趋势
Development Trends of Population in Chinese Higher Education
陈卫 1李京洮1
作者信息
摘要
通过回顾中国高等教育发展历程,基于高等教育与经济发展关系计量模型和人口预测队列要素法,对2020—2035年中国18～64岁高等教育人口规模进行估计和预测,探讨中国高等教育历史发展进程、现状特征与未来发展态势.目前,中国高等教育毛入学率已超过60％,预计到2035年达到75％.在未来人口负增长、老龄化加剧的背景下,中国18～64岁高等教育人口数量及比例将呈快速上升趋势.2020年18～64岁高等教育人口规模为2.1亿,2029年将超过3亿,2035年将达到3.7亿.18～64岁高等教育人口占该年龄段总人口比例由2020年的23％上升至2035年的43％.到2035年,年轻年龄组中高等教育人口占比将上升到70％,而在老年年龄组的占比也将超过10％.最后,基于中国高等教育人口规模与趋势预测结果讨论了相关政策启示.
Abstract
By reviewing the development history of higher education in China and using econometric models of the relationship be-tween higher education and economic development,along with cohort component methods for population forecasting,this paper estimates and predicts the scale of the higher education population aged 18～64 in China from 2020 to 2035. It explores the his-torical development process,current characteristics,and future development trends of higher education in China. Currently,the gross enrollment rate in higher education in China has exceeded 60％ and is expected to reach 75％ by 2035. Against the back-drop of negative population growth and an aging population,the number and proportion of the higher education population aged 18～64 will show a rapid upward trend. The higher education population aged 18～64 was 210 million in 2020,will exceed 300 million by 2029,and will reach 370 million by 2035. The proportion of the higher education population aged 18～64 in the total population of this age group will rise from 23％ in 2020 to 43％ in 2035. By 2035,the proportion of the higher education popula-tion in the younger age group will rise to 70％,while in the older age group it will exceed 10％. Finally,based on the results of the scale and trend predictions of the higher education population in China,relevant policy implications are discussed.
关键词
高等教育/高等教育毛入学率/人口预测/高等教育人口规模Key words
higher education/gross enrollment rate in higher education/population forecasting/scale of higher education population引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据