Development Trends of Population in Chinese Higher Education
By reviewing the development history of higher education in China and using econometric models of the relationship be-tween higher education and economic development,along with cohort component methods for population forecasting,this paper estimates and predicts the scale of the higher education population aged 18～64 in China from 2020 to 2035. It explores the his-torical development process,current characteristics,and future development trends of higher education in China. Currently,the gross enrollment rate in higher education in China has exceeded 60％ and is expected to reach 75％ by 2035. Against the back-drop of negative population growth and an aging population,the number and proportion of the higher education population aged 18～64 will show a rapid upward trend. The higher education population aged 18～64 was 210 million in 2020,will exceed 300 million by 2029,and will reach 370 million by 2035. The proportion of the higher education population aged 18～64 in the total population of this age group will rise from 23％ in 2020 to 43％ in 2035. By 2035,the proportion of the higher education popula-tion in the younger age group will rise to 70％,while in the older age group it will exceed 10％. Finally,based on the results of the scale and trend predictions of the higher education population in China,relevant policy implications are discussed.
higher educationgross enrollment rate in higher educationpopulation forecastingscale of higher education population
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