首页|流动的代际效应:外出务工对子女成年后生育的影响

流动的代际效应:外出务工对子女成年后生育的影响

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大规模人口流动产生的留守、随迁儿童,步入成年后会有着怎样的行为和态度?基于第四期湖北百县生育调查(2023)数据,分析父母外出务工对子女成年后生育的影响。研究发现:父母外出务工显著提升了子女成年后的生育意愿和生育行为;户籍地降水越多、地形起伏度越小,父母外出务工的可能性越大,其子女成年后生育增加的概率更大。父母外出务工对经济水平较高和生育率较低地区、婚姻高匹配和养育花费较低的成年子女生育的促进作用更明显。进一步研究发现,父母外出务工能够通过子女家庭收入增加与职业地位上升两条路径,对子女成年后生育意愿和生育行为发挥作用。研究从外出务工的代际角度,为新时期缓解我国少子化进程和人口高质量发展提供了启示。
Intergenerational Effects of Mobility:Impact of Parental Migration on Children's Fertility in Adulthood
The left-behind migrant children generated by large-scale social mobility in the early days of the Reform and Opening-up have now reached adulthood,and the migration experience of their parents has profoundly affected their fertility intentions and behaviors in adulthood.Based on the data from the fourth"Hubei 100 Counties Fertility Survey(2023),we analyze the impact of parental migration on their children's fertility in adulthood.The results show that parental migration significantly increases their children's fertility intentions and behaviors in adulthood.The more precipitation and the less undulating terrain in the place of domicile,the higher the probability of parental migration,and the higher the probability of increasing their children's fertility in adulthood.Parental migration promotes the fertility of children in areas with higher economic level and lower fertility,high marital matches and lower child-rearing costs.Further research finds that parental migration plays a role in children's fertility intentions and behaviors in adulthood through two pathways:increased family income and rising occupational status of the children.From the perspective of the generation of migrant workers,the study provides enlightenment for the optimization of population structure and the free flow of labor force in the new era.

labor migrationfertility intentionfertility behaviorintergenerational effects

石智雷、王赟

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中南财经政法大学 经济学院,湖北 武汉 430073

中南财经政法大学 人口与健康研究中心,湖北 武汉 430073

中南财经政法大学 公共管理学院,湖北 武汉 430073

外出务工 生育意愿 生育行为 代际效应

2025

浙江工商大学学报
浙江工商大学

浙江工商大学学报

北大核心
影响因子:0.59
ISSN:1009-1505
年,卷(期):2025.(1)