2013-2023年间浙江省青少年游泳比赛成绩变化趋势及两种成绩预测模型对比赛成绩预测效果的对比分析
The Trend of Performance Changes in Youth Swimming Competitions in Zhejiang Province 2013-2023 and the Comparative Analysis of Two Performance Prediction Models for Performance Prediction
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作者信息
- 1. 浙江体育职业技术学院 体育系,浙江 杭州 310012
- 折叠
摘要
采用数理统计法、预测分析法对 2013-2023 年间"迎春杯"浙江省青少年游泳锦标赛的成绩进行分析,以探讨2013-2023 年间青少年游泳整体水平的发展变化情况.通过整合 2013-2022 十年间比赛成绩,采用灰色理论 GM(1,1)预测模型和BP神经网络预测模型对 2023 年比赛冠军成绩和前八名平均成绩进行预测,将预测值和 2023 年比赛的实测值进行拟合对比,采用均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)对两种模型的预测能力进行评定,探索更加有效的成绩预测方法,为今后备战重要比赛提供一定的理论参考依据.
Abstract
This article uses mathematical statistics and predictive analysis to analyze the results of the"Spring Welco-ming Cup"Zhejiang Youth Swimming Championships from 2013 to 2023.To explore the development and changes in the overall level of youth swimming from 2013 to 2023 by integrating the competition results from 2013 to 2022,the grey theory GM(1,1)prediction model and BP neural network prediction model are used to predict the championship results and the average scores of the top eight in 2023.The predicted values are fitted and compared with the meas-ured values of the 2023 competition,Using root mean square error(RMSE)and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)to evaluate the predictive ability of the two models,exploring more effective performance prediction meth-ods and providing a theoretical reference for future preparation for important competitions.
关键词
游泳成绩/发展趋势/成绩预测Key words
Swimming Competition/development trend/performance prediction引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
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