Construction of a prediction model for prognosis of patients with medullary breast carcinoma based on SEER data
Objective To construct a prediction model for prognosis of patients with medullary breast carcinoma(MBC)based on the analysis of the clinical pathological characteristics and differences of prognosis of tipical medullary breast cancinoma(TMBC)and atypital medullary cancinoma of the breast(AMCB).Methods The clinical data of patients diagnosed as MCB from January 2004 to December 2017 were obtained from the surveillance,epidemiology and end results(SEER)database,including 2 017 cases of TMBC and 157 cases of AMCB.The clinicopathological characteristics of the two groups were compared;the overall survival(OS)and breast cancer-specific survival(BCSS)were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and compare between the two groups.The factors influencing the OS of MBC patients were identified with Cox regression analyses,based of which a prediction model for prognosis of MBC patients was constructed.The predictive performance of the model was evaluated by ROC curve,calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results There were no significant differences in clinical and pathological characteristics between the two groups(all P＞0.05);and Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that there were no significant differences in OS and BCSS between the two groups(all P＞0.05).Subgroup analysis revealed that AMCB patients with tumor diameter＞5 cm had poorer OS.Univariate Cox analysis showed that age,marital status,primary side,American Joint Committee on Cancer(AJCC)stage,lymph node status,progesterone receptor,radiotherapy,chemotherapy and tumor size were significantly associated with the prognosis of MBC patients.Multivariate Cox analysis showed that age,marital status,AJCC stage,lymph node status,chemotherapy,and tumor size were independent prognosis factors of MBC patients.A prediction model for 1-,3-and 5-year OS of MBC patients was constructed based on independent prognosis factors.The ROC curves,calibration curves and DCA all demonstrated that the model exhibited good predictive performance.Conclusion The clinical pathological characteristics and prognosis of TMBC and AMCB are similar,and the prognostic model for MBC constructed in this study has a good predictive value.
Medullary breast carcinomaTypical medullary breast carcinomaAtypical medullary carcinoma of the breastPrediction modelThe surveillance,epidemiology and end results database
万方数据
维普
