智库理论与实践2024,Vol.9Issue(4) :150-162.DOI:10.19318/j.cnki.issn.2096-1634.2024.04.15

美国气候安全智库的机构演进、风险认知及影响

The Institutional Evolution,Risk Perception,and Influence of U.S.Climate Security Think Tanks

张乐然 张心志
智库理论与实践2024,Vol.9Issue(4) :150-162.DOI:10.19318/j.cnki.issn.2096-1634.2024.04.15

美国气候安全智库的机构演进、风险认知及影响

The Institutional Evolution,Risk Perception,and Influence of U.S.Climate Security Think Tanks

张乐然 1张心志1
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作者信息

  • 1. 华东师范大学政治与国际关系学院 上海 200062
  • 折叠

摘要

[目的/意义]在气候变化日益为全球高度关注政治议题的背景下,美国相继成立多个气候安全智库,不断塑造美国政府在气候领域的风险认知,对全球产生多重影响.鉴于此,本文通过分析美国气候安全智库在构建"气候变化-安全问题"联系中所起的作用,为研判美国气候安全战略趋势及我国应对之策提供政策性指导.[方法/过程]本文选取海军分析中心军事顾问委员会、气候与安全中心、气候与安全国际军事委员会等3家专注研究气候安全智库机构的25篇代表性文献作为研究样本,利用文献分析法,分析美国气候安全智库的机构演进、议题认知、构建行动和政策影响.[结果/结论]专注气候安全问题研究的美国智库都具有军方背景,且在美国气候安全战略演进过程中发挥着重要作用,对气候安全议题的认知及建议与美国相关政策的提出与落实有着几乎一致的吻合度;3家智库分别从国家安全、国际安全、人类安全和生态安全等4个方面构建气候变化的风险认知,对美国政府、盟友和国际组织对气候安全问题的认知和行动产生多方面影响.鉴于此,中国应加强对美国气候安全智库的跟踪研究,同时需加强国际气候变化合作,以践行人类命运共同体价值理念.

Abstract

[Purpose/Significance]As climate change has become an increasingly high-profile global political issue,the United States has established a number of climate security think tanks that continue to shape the U.S.government's risk perceptions in the climate arena,with multiple global implications.By an-alyzing the role of U.S.climate security think tanks in constructing the"climate change-security"nexus,this study aims to provide policy guidance for examining the evolution of U.S.climate security strategy and our response.[Method/Process]This study selects a sample of 25 representative papers from three think tanks specializing in climate security,including the CNA Military Advisory Board,the Center for Climate and Se-curity,and the International Military Council on Climate and Security.This study examines the institutional evolution,issue perceptions,strategic actions,and policy impacts of U.S.climate and security think tanks through documentary analysis.[Result/Conclusion]The findings indicate that the U.S.think tanks that spe-cialize in climate security have military backgrounds and have played an important role in the evolution of the U.S.climate security strategy,and their perceptions and recommendations on climate security issues have almost the same degree of consistency with the proposal and implementation of relevant U.S.policies;the three think tanks have constructed the perception of climate change risks from four aspects,including nation-al security,international security,human security,and ecological security,and they has a multifaceted impact on how the U.S.government,allies,and international organizations perceive and act on climate security is-sues.In light of these findings,China should enhance its monitoring and research on U.S.climate security think tanks,and bolster international cooperation on climate change in order to practice the value concept of a community with a shared future for mankind.

关键词

美国气候安全智库/气候安全/气候变化/威胁倍增器

Key words

U.S.climate security think tank/climate security/climate change/threat multiplier

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出版年

2024
智库理论与实践
中国科学院文献情报中心,南京大学

智库理论与实践

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
ISSN:2096-1634
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