战略决策研究2024,Vol.15Issue(1) :85-108.

非对称性报偿结构如何影响地区合作——基于对南亚区域合作进程的分析

How does Asymmetric Structure Determine Regional Cooperation:an Analysis of Regionalism in South Asia

李铭恩
战略决策研究2024,Vol.15Issue(1) :85-108.

非对称性报偿结构如何影响地区合作——基于对南亚区域合作进程的分析

How does Asymmetric Structure Determine Regional Cooperation:an Analysis of Regionalism in South Asia

李铭恩1
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作者信息

  • 1. 云南大学国际关系研究院
  • 折叠

摘要

与世界其他地区相比,南亚区域主义的特点是进展缓慢、效率低下、合作机制经常性停摆,同时地区大国印度也未能在区域化过程中淡化与邻国间的敌意、构建区域信任.针对南亚区域主义相对失效的问题,本文尝试以非对称性报偿结构为分析视角,展现南亚区域主义中的三类行为体——地区大国印度、地区强国巴基斯坦和地区小国——在区域合作中的策略变化及其对区域合作的影响,以此解释停滞甚至是逆向的区域化进程是如何形成的.报偿结构决定了区域主义参与国初始策略的稳定性,而在区域化过程中,参与国报偿结构的不对称性影响了它们能否以及如何改变原有的策略选择.对于南亚的区域合作,印度、南亚小国和巴基斯坦分别怀有僵局、胆小鬼和相对弱势的僵局博弈参与者的偏好,它们的报偿结构呈现出了非对称的特点.在南亚区域化进程中,印度与南亚小国、印度与巴基斯坦分别形成了"恶棍博弈"和不对称状态下的"僵局博弈".两个混合博弈组显示,区域主义不仅不必然改善各国在区域合作中的收益,策略的交叉也可能逐渐演化为所有参与国更加倾向不合作的僵局形式.因此,面对"重复的失败"和"争端的溢出"两个区域主义困局,只有各国重构报偿结构、突破安全主导型的合作逻辑,区域主义才能发挥促进区域稳定与繁荣的正向作用.

Abstract

In the regionalization history of south Asia,the cooperation among states in this region has not run smoothly and has always been low in efficiency.Besides,these states have not dispelled hostility or built trust in the course of regionalism.This article applies the perspective of unsymmetrical payoff structures to explain how India,Pakistan,and the other weak South Asia states,which are players in regionalization of South Asia,adjust strategies and what ef-fects these strategies can cast on regional cooperation.This article argues that the power structure determines the scope of strategies players can choose and the characteristics of the payoff structure.In regional cooperation,an unsymmetrical payoff structure will decide whether the three key players can change their origi-nal strategies.India,weak South Asia states,and Pakistan adopt preferences of deadlock game,chicken game,and slimmer deadlock game for all of them take state security as a core concern,and the payoff structures also characterized by asymmetry.In regionalism in South Asia,there is a villain game between India and the weak South Asia states,and an asymmetry deadlock game between India and Pakistan.The two-game matrix indicates that regionalism is not only unben-efitial to the member country,but also that the intersection of strategies may gradually evolve into a stalemate in which all participating countries tend to be more uncooperative.Therefore,faced with the dilemma of"repeated failure"and"spillover of disputes",regionalism can play a positive role in promoting regional stability and prosperity only when participating countries reconstruct the compen-sation structure and break through the security-oriented logic.

关键词

区域主义/报偿结构/不对称博弈/南亚地区/印度

Key words

Regionalism/Payoff Structure/Asymmetric Game/South Asia/India

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出版年

2024
战略决策研究

战略决策研究

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