Strategic retrenchment is an important approach for hegemonic powers to manage decline.However,the process of reducing adversaries,ending wars,or withdrawing resources inevitably faces constraints.Decision-makers of the hegemonic powers have to make decisive adjustments to meet the demands of strategic retrenchment.Amid structural change,why does strategic retrenchment encourage the hegemonic power to focus on the rising power as exter-nal security threat?Currently,there is relatively limited number of research on the negative effects of strategic retrenchment on systemic stability.This article aims to construct an analyti-cal framework to examine this process.Hegemonic strategic retrenchment is accompanied by adjustments in perceptions,motivations,and organizational practices that can affect policy-makers'threat assessments of the rising power.The initiation of strategic retrenchment is accompanied by policymakers're-conceptualization of the strategic environment.The re-def-inition of primary issues and core areas accelerates the evolution of the hegemonic power's threat assessment of the rising power from"preliminary perception"to"relatively serious threat".During the implementation of strategic retrenchment,the focus on the threat of the rising power and the need to reduce resistance to strategic re-deployment lead to a further shift in the hegemonic threat assessment of the rising power to"the most serious threat".To demonstrate this logic,the article examines the strategic retrenchments of the United Kingdom before World War I and of the United States during the Obama administration.
关键词
战略收缩/威胁评估/选择性注意/大国战略竞争
Key words
Strategic Retrenchment/Threat Assessment/Selective Attention/Great Power Strategic Competition
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