首页|气温和降水变化对甘肃河西春小麦产量的影响及应对

气温和降水变化对甘肃河西春小麦产量的影响及应对

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[目的]了解春小麦生长期间气象因子的变化趋势,以及气候变化对春小麦产量的影响.[方法]利用张掖市1993-2021 年气象观测资料、春小麦产量观测资料等,分析甘肃河西气候变化对春小麦产量的影响.[结果]近 29 年中春小麦生长期气温升高、降水量减少,春小麦千粒重下降、理论产量趋于增多;春小麦生育期 3-7 月平均气温与理论产量为不明显的正相关,降水量则与千粒重和理论产量为负相关,因此气温特高或特低时春小麦均不能获得高产,气温稳定、降水量正常或略偏少是其理论产量达到丰收的必要条件.[结论]要加强气候分析论证,趋利避害,科学种植,以提高气候变化应对能力,达到春小麦稳产高产.
The Impact and Response of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on the Yield of Spring Wheat in Hexi Area of Gansu Province
[Objective]The aim was to understand the change trend of meteorological factors during the growth period of spring wheat and the impact of climate change on the yield of spring wheat.[Method]Based on the meteorological observation data and spring wheat yield observation data of Zhangye city from 1993 to 2021,the influence of climate change on spring wheat yield in Hexi of Gansu province was analyzed.[Result]In the past 29 years,the temperature in the growth period of spring wheat increased,the precipitation decreased,the 1000-grain weight of spring wheat decreased,and the theoretical yield tended to increase.The average temperature from March to July in the growth period of spring wheat was not significantly positively correlated with the theoretical yield,and the precipitation was negatively correlated with the 1000-grain weight and the theoretical yield.Therefore,spring wheat can't obtain high yield when the temperature is extremely high or extremely low.Stable temperature and normal or slightly less precipitation are necessary conditions for its theoretical yield to achieve a good harvest.[Conclusion]In order to improve the ability to cope with climate change and achieve stable and high yield of spring wheat,it is necessary to strengthen climate analysis and demonstration,draw on advantages and avoid disadvantages,and plant scientifically.

TemperaturePrecipitationSpring wheat yieldVariation characteristicsCorrelation

张婷、李强、褚超、许海芳、王煜迪、闫一丹

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甘肃省风云气象设备有限责任公司,甘肃兰州 730000

兰州资源环境职业技术大学,甘肃兰州 730021

张掖市气象局,甘肃张掖 734000

气温 降水量 春小麦产量 变化特征 相关性

甘肃省高等学校创新基金(2021)兰州资源环境职业技术大学校级科技项目产业发展研究项目(2021)兰州资源环境职业技术大学校级"农业气象灾害及其防御"科技创新团队项目(2022)

2021B-434Y2021A-02T2022-01

2024

园艺与种苗
辽宁省农业科学院

园艺与种苗

影响因子:0.483
ISSN:2095-0896
年,卷(期):2024.44(2)
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