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国际贸易隐含碳转移溢出、转型风险与宏观金融稳定

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在国际贸易、环境经济与气候金融相互影响的背景下,本文通过构建可以观察碳转移溢出效应的全球碳转移联通网络,实证分析了碳转移溢出对宏观金融稳定的影响及传导机制.结果表明:各经济体之间碳转移溢出明显降低了经济发展水平较低、气候损失较大以及气候表现绩效较差经济体的金融稳定水平,特别是增加了经济体的外债清偿风险、经常账户余额风险和国际储备流动性风险,资产价格重估视角下的转型风险是其中介机制.此外,本文还发现气候适应性措施能够有效减缓碳转移溢出对宏观金融稳定的影响,相比之下,现有的绿色宏观审慎监管框架需要进一步完善.本文探讨了气候金融框架下气候变化影响宏观金融稳定的一个可能传导链条,为从双循环视角推进我国经济绿色发展提供了新的证据.
Carbon Transfer Embodied in International Trade,Transition Risk and Macro-financial Stability
Under the background of the interaction among international trade,environmental eco-nomics and climate finance,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of carbon transfer spillover on macro-financial stability and the mechanism by constructing a global carbon transfer connected-ness network that can observe the spillover effect of carbon transfer.The findings demonstrate that spillovers significantly reduce the level of financial stability in economies with lower economic devel-opment,higher climate loss,and poorer climate performance.Specifically,they mainly increase the risks of debt service,current account and international liquidity.The mechanism test results indicate that spillovers would decrease macro-financial risk through the channel of transition risks from the perspective of asset price revaluation.Furthermore,climate adaptation measures can effec-tively mitigate the impact of carbon transfer spillovers on macro-financial stability,while existing macro-prudential policies need further improvement.This study discusses a possible transmission chain of climate change affecting macro-financial stability in the framework of climate finance,pro-viding new evidences for China's promotion of green development from both the perspective of do-mestic and abroad.

Carbon Emission Embodied in International TradeClimate ChangeTransition RiskSpillover EffectFinancial Stability

黄孝武、赵鑫

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中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉 430073

国际贸易隐含碳转移 气候变化 转型风险 溢出效应 金融稳定

国家社会科学基金项目中南财经政法大学中央高校基本科研业务费项目

19JL023202310565

2024

中南财经政法大学学报
中南财经政法大学

中南财经政法大学学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.854
ISSN:1003-5230
年,卷(期):2024.(5)
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