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Integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness for groundwater contamination risk assessment in a little town, Central China

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An integrated evaluation system under randomness and fuzziness was developed in this work to systematically assess the risk of groundwater contamination in a little town,Central China.In this system,randomness of the parameters and the fuzziness of the risk were considered simultaneously,and the exceeding standard probability of contamination and human health risk due to the contamination were integrated.The contamination risk was defined as a combination of "vulnerability" and "hazard".To calculate the value of "vulnerability",pollutant concentration was simulated by MODFLOW with random input variables and a new modified health risk assessment (MRA) model was established to analyze the level of "hazard".The limit concentration based on environmental-guideline and health risk due to manganese were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base.The "vulnerability" and "hazard" were divided into five categories of "high","medium-high","medium","low-medium" and "low",respectively.Then,"vulnerability" and "hazard" were firstly combined by integrated evaluation.Compared with the other two scenarios under deterministic methods,the risk obtained in the proposed system is higher.This research illustrated that ignoring of uncertainties in evaluation process might underestimate the risk level.

integrated evaluationrandomnessfuzzinessmodified health risk assessmentuncertaintymanganese

ZHU Hui-na、YUAN Xing-zhong、LIANG Jie、LIU Yong-de、YIN Juan、JIANG Hong-wei、HUANG Hua-jun

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School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Henan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450001, China

College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China

Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control of Ministry of Education(Hunan University),Changsha 410082, China

School of Management Science and Engineering, Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003, China

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National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaState Council Three Gorges Project Construction Committee Executive Office,ChinaHenan University of Technology,ChinaGuangzhou Water Authority,China

51039001,51009063SX2010-0262012BS046BYHGLC-2010-02

2014

中南大学学报(英文版)
中南大学

中南大学学报(英文版)

CSCDSCIEI
影响因子:0.47
ISSN:2095-2899
年,卷(期):2014.21(3)
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