Evaluating habitat suitability of endangered plant Horsfieldia hainanensis based on the optimized MaxEnt model
[Objective]Horsfieldia hainanensis is an iconic species of moist tropical rainforests in China,and it is currently endangered due to its own biological characteristics and human destruction and logging.Predicting the potential distribution of H.hainanensis in China during the contemporary period,analyzing the main environmental factors affecting its distribution,and exploring the changes in its distribution pattern under future climate scenarios can provide a theoretical basis for the protection and restoration of its germplasm resources.[Method]Based on 37 distribution points of H.hainanensis and 11 environmental factors,the optimized MaxEnt model with R language and GIS software were used to predict the distribution and future change trends of the species'suitable habitat areas,and to explore the main environmental factors affecting its distribution.[Result]The optimized MaxEnt model had high prediction accuracy,with an average AUC value of 0.960.The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of H.hainanensis's suitable habitat areas were the min temperature of the coldest month,the temperature annual range,and normalized difference vegetation index.The suitable ranges for these factors were as follows:the min temperature of the coldest month ranged from 9.7 to 14.7℃,the temperature annual range was less than 20.7℃,and the normalized difference vegetation index was higher than 211.In the contemporary period,the distribution of H.hainanensis's suitable habitat areas spanned three provinces in southern China:Guangxi,Yunnan,and Hainan,with a total area of 20.71×103 km2,including 8.63×103 km2 of highly suitable habitat and 12.08×103 km2 of low suitable habitat.In the future,under four scenarios over three periods,the suitable habitat area of H.hainanensis will show an overall expansion trend,and the position of the habitat distribution centroid will migrate to higher latitudes,indicating a trend of change towards the north.[Conclusion]The optimized MaxEnt model can accurately predict the potential suitable habitats of H.hainanensis.In the contemporary period,H.hainanensis still has a large of potential suitable habitat areas,which are mainly affected by temperature-related factors.With climate change,the suitable habitat area of H.hainanensis will increase,and the distribution of suitable areas will migrate towards the north.
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