Distribution of potential suitable areas of rare and endangered Cupressaceae species in China under climate change
[Objective]The rare and endangered species of Cupressaceae in China are the key wild plants under national protection.To predict their potential distribution in different climate scenarios in China in the future,we hope to provide scientific basis for the management and protection of the species.[Method]Based on the geographic distribution information of 13 tree species and 37 environmental factors data,the MaxEnt model optimized by R language was used to analyze the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of their potential habitat areas and their responses under climate change.[Result]1)After the optimization of MaxEnt model,the AUC values of each tree species were all greater than 0.9,indicating that the prediction accuracy of the model was excellent.2)The distribution range of the 13 tree species were relatively narrow,except for the Thuja koraiensis mainly distributed in the northeast Changbai Mountain area,the other tree species mainly distributed in the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River south area.3)The key environmental factors affecting the distribution of tree species were:precipitation of the driest month(BIO14,PC=35%)＞temperature annual range(BIO7,PC=17.1%)＞altitude(ALT,PC=9.2%)＞isothermality(BIO3,PC=8.5%)＞slope(SLO,PC=7.2%)＞minimum temperature of the coldest month(BIO6,PC=5.3%).4)Under the future climate scenario,with the increase of carbon emission concentration,the total habitat area of Cupressus gigantea,Cupressus torulosa,Calocedrus macrolepis,Taiwania cryptomerioides and Xanthocyparis vietnamensis would show expanding trends.The total suitable areas of Glyptostrobus pensilis,Thuja sutchuenensis,Calocedrus rupestris,Chamaecyparis formosensis,Fokienia hodginsii and Thuja koraiensis would show decreasing trends.The total suitable area of Metasequoia glyptostroboides and Cupressus chengiana would show different expanding and decreasing trends under different climate scenarios.[Conclusion]The optimized MaxEnt model could well simulate the response of rare and endangered Cupressaceae species to climate change,and the distribution of suitable areas of each species was mostly discontinuous.It is suggested to expand the range of suitable areas and strengthen the protection of their habitats.
rare and endangeredCupressaceaepptimizing MaxEnt modelclimate change
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
