首页|基于生存分析的少儿图书畅销期及影响因素研究

基于生存分析的少儿图书畅销期及影响因素研究

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本研究基于北京开卷2018~2022年少儿畅销书年榜中的新书数据,进行畅销期的生存分析,并研究不同影响因素对畅销期的影响.结果表明,少儿畅销书的平均畅销期为半年左右,最长可达4年半,且畅销期超过半年的畅销书从畅销书榜落榜的风险率降低并趋于稳定.少儿绘本和文学类选题、定价在30~50元的中间而非最低区间、知名度更高的作者、专业少儿出版社、成系列出版等因素,使得少儿畅销书落榜风险率降低,畅销期更长.基于生存分析结果提出策划少儿图书的建议:打造长销型少儿图书时可优先考虑少儿文学和绘本选题并在关键时间节点转变营销策略;合理定价;专业少儿出版社继续发挥自身优势;组稿时优先选择知名度较高作者;策划同主题的系列畅销书等.
Research on the Best-selling Period and Influencing Factors of Children's Books Based on Survival Analysis
Based on the new book data in the 2018~2022 Children's Bestseller Annual List of Beijing Open Book,the survival analysis of the best-selling period was carried out,and the influence of different influencing fac-tors on the best-selling period was studied.The results show that the average best-selling period of children's best-sellers is about half a year,up to 4 and a half years,and the risk rate of bestsellers with a best-selling period of more than half a year from the bestseller list decreases and tends to be stable.Children's picture books and litera-ture topics,pricing in the middle of 30~50 yuan instead of the lowest range,more well-known authors,profession-al children's publishing houses,series publishing and other factors make children's bestsellers have a lower risk rate and a longer best-selling period.Based on the results of survival analysis,suggestions for planning children's books are put forward.When creating long-selling children's books,priority can be given to children's literature and picture book topics,and marketing strategies can be changed at a critical time node.Reasonable pricing and professional children's publishing houses continue to play to their own advantages.The authors with high reputa-tion are preferred when organizing manuscripts.Planning a series of bestsellers on the same subject is advisable.

children's booksbest-selling periodsurvival analysis

周畅、王逊

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广东财经大学 人文与传播学院,广东 广州 510320

武汉大学 信息管理学院,湖北 武汉 430072

少儿图书 畅销期 生存分析

上海出版传媒研究院项目(2022)

SAYB2201

2024

肇庆学院学报
肇庆学院

肇庆学院学报

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.297
ISSN:1009-8445
年,卷(期):2024.45(2)
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