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因果关系的反事实理论与超定问题

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超定问题是对因果关系的反事实理论的一项根本挑战.面对超定问题,学界存在两种针锋相对的态度:一是直接否认超定存在的物理可能性,并将其案例化归为无害的联因致果;另一种则主张超定是物理可能的,并认为典型的超定案例普遍存在.这一争论促使人们重新思考超定的本质和定义方式,同时揭示出事件作为因果关系项或许具有隐秘的非同质性.经过澄清,所谓的典型超定案例并非真实的超定,真实的超定以结果迟钝性为标志,这一结论要求我们重新思考反事实理论的基底观念.
Counterfactual Theory of Causation and the Problem of Causal Overdetermination
The problem of causal overdetermination poses a fundamental challenge to the counterfactual theory of causation.In response to this challenge,two opposing attitudes emerge.One attitude is to deny the physical possibility of overdetermination and to classify so-called typical cases of overdetermi-nation as harmless cases of joint causation.The other attitude is to advocate for the physical possibility of overdetermination and to believe that typical ca-ses of overdetermination are widespread.This debate prompts a deeper understanding of the definition schema of overdetermination,revealing that events,as causal relata,may exhibit hidden non-homogeneity.Upon clarification,it becomes apparent that the so-called typical cases of overdetermination are not real,and genuine instances of overdetermination are characterized by the insensitivity of the effect.This conclusion requires us to rethink the basic idea of counterfactual theory of causation.

causationcounterfactual theoryoverdeterminationphysical possibleinsensitivity

吉磊

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南京大学哲学系,南京 210023

因果关系 反事实理论 超定 物理可能 迟钝性

国家社会科学基金重点项目南京大学认知成像揭榜挂帅项目

23AZX018

2024

自然辩证法研究
中国自然辩证法研究会

自然辩证法研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.395
ISSN:1000-8934
年,卷(期):2024.40(2)
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