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生态学预测性问题研究——质疑、进展及前瞻

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由于生态学研究对象的复杂性与异质性,生态学各分支在理论基础上缺乏充分一致性,生态学预测方法上的缺陷,以及生态系统受人类活动影响等原因,生态学预测性长期受到怀疑.20世纪90年代以来,生态预测研究迎来了快速发展时期.人们对生态预测的理解不断深化,理论和技术手段的进步使人们处理生态系统异质性、复杂性、不确定性的能力显著提高.针对诸多阻碍,学界也从不同角度提出应对之策,并在应用上已经取得切实的进步.生态学预测性的研究已经有所进展,未来可以期待取得进一步的进展.
Research on Predictive Problems in Ecology:Questions,Progress and Prospects
The complexity and heterogeneity of ecological research objects,the lack of sufficient consistency in theory among various branches of ecology,and the widespread influence of human activities on ecosystems make people doubt the predictability of ecology.Since the 1990s,predictive ecology re-searches have ushered in a period of rapid development.People's understanding of ecological forecasting is deepening,and the progress of theoretical and technical means has significantly improved people's ability to cope with the heterogeneity,complexity and uncertainty of ecosystems.Scholars have also put forward plans to promote ecological forecasting from different angles,and have made practical progress in application.There has been progress in the study of ecological prediction,and further progress can be expected in the future.

ecological predictionecological uncertainty

卫东、严火其

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南京农业大学人文与社会发展学院,南京 210095

生态学预测 生态学不确定性

国家社会科学基金重大项目

16ZDA112

2024

自然辩证法研究
中国自然辩证法研究会

自然辩证法研究

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.395
ISSN:1000-8934
年,卷(期):2024.40(10)