The problem of new hypotheses(PNH)is a fundamental problem of Bayesian epistemology applied to hypothesis testing,which is about how to put forward new hypotheses legitimately in the Bayesian framework.PNH is essentially about the reasonable justification of initial belief,which challenges the inductive justification virtue of Bayesian epistemology.Some scholars believed that PNH could be resolved in the Bayesian framework,and proposed some Bayesian strategies,such as credence gap-filling,property-prediction,and catch-all hypothesis.By examining the mechanism and main dilem-mas of these strategies,it can be said that the initial belief in new hypotheses is hard to be justified in the Bayesian framework effectively.In order to re-solve PNH,it is necessary to further investigate the mechanism of forming initial belief and the inductive foundation of Bayesian epistemology.
the problem of new hypothesesBayesian epistemologyinitial beliefinductive justification
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