Research on Human Error Probability of Communication Network Operation and Maintenance Based on Bayesian Method
To quantitatively investigate the probabilities of various human errors in communication network operation and maintenance tasks,the nominal human error probabilities of 40 common error modes were estimated using expert judgments aggregated by Bayesian methods.The results indicated that the order of magnitudes of most error modes were around 1E-3,given all performance shaping factors at nominal levels.Besides,errors arisen from understanding and decision-making failures were found with higher probability as compared with errors arisen from other cognitive function fail-ures.In practical applications,those error modes with relatively high probabilities should be put greater priority on.
communication network operation and maintenancehuman errorhuman error proba-bilityexpert judgmentBayesian method
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
