Research on evolutionary probability of dam failure fault chains based on historical data
Once a dam breaks,it will cause serious loss of life and property.The dam failure process shows typical chain characteristics,and identifying the typical patterns and evolutionary characteristics of dam failure accident chains is conducive to the development of engineering disaster prevention and mitigation work.Embankment dam is one of the main dam types of reservoir dams in China.Aiming at the problems of complex disaster-causing factors,strong uncertainty and single quantitative analysis method of dam failure events,the paper takes embankment dam as the research object,and establishes a complex network model of embankment dam failure accident chains by deeply exploring the potential risk events and dam failure patterns in historical dam failure data.Based on the differences in the chronological characteristics of embankment dam failures,it quantifies the correlation degree and influence degree among the risk events in typical dam failure accident chains using a risk event co-occurrence matrix.The method of quantifying the probability of evolution of embankment dam failure accident chains is proposed,and the evolution results are compared with the existing research results,which verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method to a certain extent.The research results provide important technical support for strengthening the risk prevention and control of reservoir dam.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
