山区强降雨引发的滑坡、泥石流和其他破坏性的自然灾害有时不是独立的,而是结合在一起形成灾害链.基于浅层滑坡诱发的沟谷型泥石流形成机理,提出了一种结合瞬时降雨渗透和基于网格的区域斜坡稳定性(transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability,TRIGRS)模型和AL-A模型的方法来实现逐小时的易发性预测.结果表明,TRIGRS模型在预测浅层滑坡的空间分布方面表现良好,其成功率为 57%.因此,将其作为泥石流物源的初始输入是合理的.耦合的模型在预测泥石流时,发现该模型的准确性较好(67.4%).此外,所提出的耦合模型可以根据气象站提供的逐小时降雨数据达到动态预测此类灾害效果.因此,本研究的结果有助于为山区降雨引起的浅层滑坡诱发的沟谷型泥石流灾害提供一个更有效的预测方法.
Regional prediction of gully-type debris flow caused by shallow landslides in Fujian
Landslide,debris flow,and other destructive natural hazards induced by heavy rainfall in mountainous regions are sometimes not independent but combined to form a disaster chain.Based on the integral link between the triggering of the landslide and the subsequent debris flow,we propose an approach that combines the transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability(TRIGRS)model and the AL-A model to achieve hourly hazard prediction.The results indicate that the TRIGRS model performes well in predicting the spatial distribution of the shallow landslides,with a success rate of 57%.Thus,it is reasonable to use it as the initial input for debris flow simulations.The coupled model was found to have a good accuracy of 67.4%in predicting the debris flow.Furthermore,the proposed coupled model can dynamically predict disasters by the hour based on actual rainfall events.Therefore,the results of this study help provide a more complete hazard prediction method for rainfall-induced landslide-debris flow hazards in mountainous regions.
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