首页|基于改进西原模型的滑坡临滑切线角预警判据研究

基于改进西原模型的滑坡临滑切线角预警判据研究

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成功预报滑坡灾害的核心是建立科学准确的预警判据,目前的预警判据方案大多依据单一滑坡数据参数构建,而获得的针对性判据无法广泛用于其它滑坡.为了建立更加具有适用性的预报模型,在西原模型的基础上,增加能够描述加速蠕变行为的黏壶元件,提出改进的西原模型.根据改进切线角分析蠕变过程中等速变形速率与临滑切线角的相关性,分别对 27 个同量纲化的土质、岩质滑坡监测数据进行拟合,获得滑坡等速变形速率和临滑切线角之间的关系,确定相关系数,建立滑坡预警判据,并将其应用于龙马水电站和桐子林水电站 2 个边坡工程实例,验证了预报判据的可靠度和预测预报的可行性,研究结果对于滑坡灾害预警预报与防治具有重要的意义.
Research on early warning criterion of landslide critical sliding tangential angle based on improved Nishihara model
The core of successfully predicting landslide disasters is to establish scientific and accurate early warning criteria.At present,most of the current early warning criterion schemes are constructed based on a single landslide data parameter,and the obtained targeted criteria can not be widely used for other landslides.To establish a more applicable prediction model,based on the Nishihara model,a nonlinear viscous dashpot element that can describe accelerated creep behavior was added,and an improved Nishihara model was proposed.Based on the improved tangential angle analysis,the correlation between the constant deformation rate and the critical sliding tangential angle during creep process is analyzed.The relationships between the constant deformation rate and the impending sliding tangential angle of 27 dimensionless soil and rock landslide monitoring data are fitted respectively to determine the correlation coefficient and establish a landslide early warning criterion.The research results are applied to two slope engineering examples of Longma Hydropower Station and Tongzilin Hydropower Station,which verified the reliability of the prediction criteria and the feasibility of prediction.It is of great significance for landslide disaster early warning,prediction and prevention.

landslideNishihara modelconstant deformation ratecritical sliding tangential anglewarning criteria

郭延辉、霍圆、毛肖涓、吴奇、刘星辰

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昆明理工大学 公共安全与应急管理学院,云南 昆明 650093

滑坡 西原模型 等速变形速率 临滑切线角 预警判据

云南省基础研究计划面上项目昆明理工大学省级人才培养基金项目云南省兴滇英才支持计划青年人才专项项目国家大学生创新创业训练计划项目国家大学生创新创业训练计划项目云南省大学生创新创业训练计划项目

202301AT070454KKZ3202367014KKXX20246704320211067400852021106740086S202310674163

2024

10.13577/j.jnd.2024.0509

自然灾害学报
中国地震局工程力学所 中国灾害防御协会

自然灾害学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.862
ISSN：1004-4574
年,卷(期)：2024.33(5)
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