The Nonlinear Characteristics of Annual Runoff Change in Aksu River
As a demonstration from the three rivers of the Aksu River Basin, the paper checked the nonlinear characteristics of annual runoff processes from 1957 to 2008 by using the wavelet a- nalysis method and R/S analysis. The main conclusions are as follows： The annual runoff trends of the mainstream of Aksu River, the Kumlak River and Tuoshigan River are increasing; the trends are divided into two parts ： the runoff is less in the prophase and more in the latter period. The time series of runoff in Aksu River all has long cycles, which contains some short ones. The period of 18 years and 22 years is the first period, which is through all the time sequence. The Hurst index of the three rivers in the Aksu River Basin is over 0.5 in each period, which indi- cates that the time series of runoff have the long trend. The Hurst index of each river in the last period indicates that the annual runoff in the Aksu River Basin will show an increasing trend in the future.
runoffnonlinearwavelet methodR/S analysisAksu River
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
