Land use modelling under the shared socioeconomic pathways:An empirical study of Hubei province based on CGE model
The main purpose of this paper is to forecast quantitative structure of land use in Hubei province from 2020 to 2035 under the framework of shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).Applying a new way to build social accounting matrix incorperating land use pattern,our research employs a CGE model of land use and scenario simulation under the SSPs framework,which is a new series of scenarios proposed by the IPCC based on climate change background and probable future socio-economic conditions.In SSP3 scenario,it is anticipated that there will be significant fluctuations in the areas of various land types,and the area of environmental protection accounts is forecasted to decrease by 10.68％,which poses a significant obstacle to achieving the crucial goals of fostering harmonious development between humans and the land,as well as promoting green ecological development.In contrast,in SSP1 and SSP4 scenarios,all types of land keep relatively steady.In SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios,fluctuation appears in land use structure.Nevertheless,it is noteworthy that these scenarios also indicate an increase in the allocation of resources for environmental protection accounts in 2035,which indicates that no severe damage will be inflicted on the natural environment.Based on the research,we can draw the conclusion that the prediction of CGE model is accurate,and the changes in land use structure in Hubei from 2020 to 2035 demonstrate distinct trends under different SSP scenarios.Comparing different SSPs scenarios,we discover that total factor productivity(TFP)and human capital storage have a crucial and positive effect on the conservation of environment.Thus,in order to protect our environment efficiently,measures such as increasing education input and average level of education and optimizing the structure of labor market should be taken to improve the amount of human capital storage.By considering the interplay between industrial development and land use,not only does our study contribute to the modelling of land use forecasting,but also our research provides valuable insights of future land use patterns of Hubei taking into account both economic and ecological factors,which can serve as a reference for regional sustainable development strategies and the development of a high-quality national spatial layout.
land use predictionCGE modelsocial accounting matrixshared socioeconomic pathwaysHubei province
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