Toward the dynamic evolution and early warning of comprehensive risk in China's lithium resources
Strategic critical minerals are crucial for the development of emerging industries and constitute a top priority for resource security.With the ongoing deepening of global multipolarity and economic globalization,the level of mutual connection and interdependence between nations has unprecedentedly increased.China not only has a sustained demand for mineral resources in economic growth but also experiences a growing need for various strategic critical mineral resources in emerging technologies,green energy,and other sectors.The widespread application of lithium resources in electric vehicles,energy storage,and other fields has led to an increasingly complex supply-demand relationship and market structure for lithium resources,with associated risks gradually becoming apparent.This underscores the urgency and necessity of early warning and scientific management of comprehensive risks related to lithium resources.This study constructed a comprehensive risk assessment framework for China's lithium resources,covering"resources-technology-trade-market-society,"based on the five basic meanings of resource security.Five primary indicators and 22 secondary indicators were selected.The CRITIC weight,combined with the gray relational projection method,was employed to assess and warn about the comprehensive risk of lithium resources from 2008 to 2022.Path analysis was also conducted to clarify the pathways of influence.The study addresses three main research questions:"What is the current risk situation?","What are the future risks?",and"How to avoid risks?".The results indicate that:(1)The comprehensive risk of China's lithium resources has consistently been at a medium-risk level or above,showing a dual-peak changing pattern since 2015.Among them,technology risk,trade risk,and social risk exhibit a typical multi-peak curve,with a prominent polarization phenomenon.(2)The early-stage comprehensive risk of China's lithium resources has been consistently in a"heavy warning"state and is expected to be maintained at a"medium warning"state in the future.Global events are often accompanied by abrupt changes in warning levels before and after their occurrence.Specifically,since 2017,there have been sudden changes in resource risk,technology risk,trade risk,market risk,and social risk,with their warning levels showing a phased growth pattern.In the future,market risk may continue to be in a"heavy warning"state.(3)There is a significant positive impact among the risks.
万方数据
维普
