Is afforestation for carbon sinks a cost-effective way to achieve carbon neutrality?Take Northwest China as an example
Afforestation is an important way to mitigate climate change,but its cost effectiveness cannot be ignored,which is especially important for the arid and semi-arid regions in Northwest China.To evaluate the cost effectiveness of afforestation for carbon sink in Northwest China,this paper constructed a three-dimensional integrated geography-economy-ecology analysis framework.The marginal afforestation areas in Northwest China was identified based on the superposition model of environmental factors and the dynamic optimization model of land use.The carbon sink potential by afforestation was predicted using the Richards growth equation,based on which the carbon sink supply curve was fitted.The cost effectiveness of afforestation for carbon sink in Northwest China was also analyzed.The results showed that:(1)The afforestation area that satisfies both natural and economic feasibility is 1027100 hm2 in Northwest China,accounting for about 20.56％of natural afforestation.Among them,grassland and unused land were dominant,and suitable afforestation areas were mainly distributed in Qinghai and Gansu provinces.(2)The carbon sink potential of afforestation in Northwest China is 9.37 million tons CO2 per year,and by 2060,afforestation will contribute approximately 9.70％-15.06％to the carbon neutrality target of this region,which cannot be ignored.(3)The average cost of afforestation for carbon sink in Northwest China was 948.81 yuan/t CO2,which was not cost-effective overall compared with the carbon emission reduction cost of thermal power.And in scenarios where climate change needs to be addressed urgently,the afforestation for carbon sinks in Northwest China will become even less cost effective.Accordingly,policy recommendations were proposed to improve the contribution of afforestation for achieving carbon neutrality.
carbon neutralityecosystem service valuecarbon sink supply curvecarbon sink costNorthwest China
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