首页|城市轨道交通土地溢价差异的影响因素——元分析回归的视角

城市轨道交通土地溢价差异的影响因素——元分析回归的视角

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在交通强国战略下,各地积极推动城市轨道交通建设及沿线土地开发,产生了显著的社会经济效应。针对城市轨道交通溢价效应差异化结果,基于元分析回归方法,从情景因素与方法论因素两个方面解析差异化结果及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)城市轨道交通能通过交通模式替代、土地开发演化等效应,产生一定的土地溢价。(2)基于不同的情景因素与方法论因素,如评估对象选择、轨道成熟度、可达性等情景因素以及不同实证研究方法,会显著影响轨道交通溢价的评估结果。相比特征价格模型,多时期价格变化对比和局部线性回归测算结果相对较高,而双重差分模型较低。(3)轨道交通溢价效应具有动态复杂性。鉴于轨道交通的经济和社会效应,可构建溢价捕获等机制保障交通服务的可持续、均等化与可及性。
Influencing factors of differences in land premiums of urban rail transit:A meta-analysis regression perspective
Under the strategy of accelerating the effort to build China into a country with a strong transport industry,local governments have actively carried out urban rail transit construction and promoted transit-oriented development(TOD)within the transit-serving areas,which has gradually generated significant social and economic effects.Indeed,urban China has issued a series of national or regional planning outlines and policies to promote the high-quality development of urban rail transit infrastructure and the associated land-use planning.Currently,to what extent urban rail transit can produce a land premium effect still remains controversial,which is significantly affected by contextual factors and research design.For the differentiation results of the premium effect in urban rail transit,a sample of 298 observations from 44 published journal articles was investigated by using a meta-analysis regression approach,and the influencing factors of differentiation results were discussed from two aspects:contextual factors and research design.The results of the meta-analysis regressions would be helpful to promote both economic development and social equity.The findings show that:(1)Urban rail transit can produce a certain land premium effect based on the transport mode substitution and land development evolution effects,but the rail transit premium effect presents significantly differentiated results based on different contextual factors and research design.(2)Contextual factors such as assessment objectives,rail transit maturity,and accessibility features are major factors influencing rail transit and land premium connections;different methodologies adopted will also influence rail transit premium evaluation results.Compared to the hedonic pricing model,the premium impact evaluated by the multi-period price change and local linear regression methods presents a higher result,while the difference-in-difference model has a lower result.(3)The premium effect of rail transit has dynamic complexity.Concerning the economic and social impact of urban rail transit,mechanisms such as land value capture can be constructed to promote the sustainability,equality,and accessibility of rail transit services.

urban rail transitland premium effectvalue capturemeta-analysis regression

林雄斌、牛步青、潘琦、詹双芬、马仁锋

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宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系,宁波 315211

浙江省陆海国土空间利用与治理协同创新中心,宁波 315211

宁波大学东海研究院,宁波 315211

城市轨道交通 土地溢价效应 溢价捕获 元分析回归

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金浙江省哲学社会科学规划重点项目宁波市青年科技创新领军人才项目

420011744227120123NDJC015Z2023QL016

2024

自然资源学报
中国自然资源学会 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

自然资源学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.073
ISSN:1000-3037
年,卷(期):2024.39(4)
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