首页|上海市建设用地与人口变化的关联特征及展望

上海市建设用地与人口变化的关联特征及展望

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系统研究建设用地与人口的时空耦合关系,是优化调整建设用地与人口政策,提高土地资源利用效率的理论基础。利用1990年以来四次人口普查数据与多时期土地利用遥感监测数据,基于人口一建设用地变化率模型分析1990-2020年间上海市域及16个行政区建设用地面积与人口数量的时空变化特征和耦合关系。研究发现:(1)30年间上海市建设用地和人口均大幅扩张,强度剧烈,呈典型的蔓延特征。(2)全市16个区人口用地变迁同时呈现空间分异和地理邻近特征。(3)在近郊区和远郊区变迁强度先增后减的同时,部分中心城区出现人口用地的减少。研究结果反映出30年来上海市人口用地变化与城市发展呈现出一种"补偿式启动、扩张式发展、收缩式平衡"的阶段性特征。首次提出了变迁强度、弹性等概念和计算方法,并加入地理信息增强结果可视化,为超大城市人地关系提供了评价方法和价值导向,可为相关政策制定和规划编制提供参考。
Correlation characteristics and prospects of construction land and population changes in Shanghai
The systematic study of the spatio-temporal coupling relationship between construction land and population serves as a theoretical basis for optimizing and adjusting policies related to construction land and population,ultimately enhancing the efficiency of land resource utilization.Utilizing four sets of census data since 1990 and multi-temporal land use remote sensing monitoring data,this study analyzes the spatial and temporal changes and coupling relationships between construction land area and population in Shanghai's urban area and its 16 administrative districts from 1990 to 2020,based on the population-construction land change rate model.The research findings are as follows:(1)Over the past 30 years,both construction land and population in Shanghai have expanded significantly,marked by intense change intensities,and exhibiting typical sprawl characteristics.(2)The population and land use changes in all 16 districts of the city simultaneously show spatial differentiation and geographic adjacency features.(3)While the intensity of changes in the suburban and outer suburban areas first increases and then decreases,some central urban areas experience a decrease in both population and land use.The results of the study reflect a phased characteristic of"compensatory initiation,expansive development,and contraction equilibrium"in the population and land use changes in Shanghai over the past 30 years.The study introduces concepts and calculation methods such as change intensity and elasticity for the first time,and incorporates geographic information to enhance result visualization.The research conclusions provide an evaluation method and value orientation for the relationship between people and land in mega-cities,offering reference for relevant policy formulation and planning.

human-land relationshippopulation/construction land change rate modelhuman settlement spatial transition modelcorrelation characteristicsShanghai

游猎、刘晓琴、陈睿山

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上海交通大学设计学院,上海 200240

人地关系 人口—建设用地变化率模型 人居空间变迁模型 关联特征 上海

国家自然科学基金国家社会科学基金重大项目

5190835020ZDA085

2024

自然资源学报
中国自然资源学会 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

自然资源学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.073
ISSN:1000-3037
年,卷(期):2024.39(5)