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南水北调工程通水对受水区农业用水的影响

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原文链接
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
利用中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2004-2021年面板数据，构建渐进双重差分模型，基于规模和结构双重视角，考察了南水北调工程通水对于受水区农业用水的影响。结果表明:(1)南水北调工程通水降低了受水区农业用水规模和农业用水占比，其中的作用机制为经济作物种植面积和比例的减少，以及粮食作物种植比例的增加;(2)相较于东线而言，南水北调工程通水对于受水区农业用水的负向影响在中线地区更为严重;(3)南水北调工程"通水间接返还农业用水"的效应存在，但现阶段被工程对受水区农业用水的直接效应所遮掩。因此，需要从战略高度清晰认识到南水北调工程通水对于受水区农业用水的影响，强化农业用水支撑，保障国家粮食安全，推动南水北调后续工程高质量发展。
The influence of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project on agricultural water use in the water-receiving areas
Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2004 to 2021,this paper constructs a Time-varying DID model from dual perspectives of scale and structure to examine the impact of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(hereafter the Project)on agricultural water use in the water-receiving areas.The results show that:(1)The water supply of the project has reduced the scale and proportion of agricultural water use in the receiving ar-eas,and the mechanism analysis of the result is the reduction of the planting area and propor-tion of economic crops,and the increase of the proportion of grain crops.(2)Compared with the eastern route,the negative impact of the Project on the agricultural water use in the receiv-ing areas is more serious in the middle route areas.(3)There is an effect of"indirect return of agricultural water through water supply"of the Project,but at this stage it is neglected by the di-rect impact of the Project on agricultural water use in the water-receiving areas.Therefore,it is necessary to clearly understand the impact of the Project on the agricultural water use of the wa-ter-receiving areas from a strategic perspective,to strengthen the support of agricultural water use to ensure national food security,and to promote the high-quality development of follow-up projects of the Project.

South-to-North Water Diversion Projectproject's water supplyagricultural water useTime-varying DID model

徐章星、邱晓楠、田贵良、李祎雯

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河海大学商学院,南京 211100

生态文明建设与流域保护研究院,南京 210024

江苏长江保护与高质量发展研究基地,南京 210024

南水北调 工程通水 农业用水 渐进双重差分模型

江苏省社会科学基金青年项目江苏省高等学校哲学社会科学研究一般项目中央高校基本科研业务费专项江苏省创新支撑计划软科学研究计划

22EYC0112022SJYB0032B230207027BR2023021-2

2024

10.31497/zrzyxb.20240515

自然资源学报
中国自然资源学会 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所

自然资源学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：2.073
ISSN：1000-3037
年,卷(期)：2024.39(5)