Mechanism analysis and empirical research on urbanization and carbon emissions in China:Based on the perspective of economic development,population transfer,and urban expansion
Urbanization and carbon emissions are both national focuses,academic research hot-spots,and policy governance difficulties.Based on the perspectives of economic development,population transfer,and urban expansion,this paper analyzes the mechanisms of urbanization and carbon emissions from the multi-dimensional perspective of"industry-population-land",and uses decoupling analysis,Kaya-LMDI factor decomposition,and STIRPAT-LSDV model to empirically study the mechanisms of urbanization and carbon emissions in China.The study indicates that:(1)The material elements of urbanization,namely industry,population,and land,play a crucial role in the evolution of urbanization,and their changes are the logical starting point for changes in carbon emissions.The underlying logic,important factors,and spatial guar-antee of the coupling interaction between urbanization and carbon emissions are economic de-velopment,population transfer,and urban expansion.(2)Since China acceded to the WTO,in-dustrialization has accelerated.The relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions has changed from weak decoupling to growth coupling and even negative decoupling.As China en-ters the stage of high-quality economic development,the role of industry,population,and land urbanization in promoting carbon emissions has gradually diminished.(3)From 1990 to 2020,the effects of China's energy structure,energy efficiency,low-carbon economic structure,per capita economic level,economic scale,urban population size,urban population density,urban land size,and urban land use intensity on carbon emissions in the process of urbanization were 1.37,-139.98,-138.61,163.53,223.95,60.41,-25.24,85.66,and 138.29 billion tons,respec-tively.(4)Between 2003 and 2020,China's energy structure,energy efficiency,proportion of output value of the secondary and tertiary industries,urban population,and urban built-up area increased by 1％respectively,and carbon emissions correspondingly increased by 1.111％,-0.560％,0.771％,0.477％,and 0.488％,respectively.The interaction mechanism between ur-banization and carbon emissions has spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The research results can provide scientific basis and decision-making reference for the implementation of new ur-banization and the"Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals"strategy.
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