How to deal with the trade frictions of a country has become the focus of policymakers and scholars.Using the synthetic control method,we exploit the success and failure of Japan's response to the Plaza Accord under a"counterfactual"framework.It is shown that after the signing of the"Plaza Accord",the countermeasures implemented by Japan not only did not inhibit economic development,but instead accelerated the upgrading of economic structure and achieved sustainable economic development.Its per capita GDP treatment effect increased from 188.48 international dollars in 1987 to 2302.95 international dollars in 1991.However,in this process,excessive financial liberalization and unstable monetary policies led to sharp fluctuations in asset prices,resulting in a lack of stability in the financial market.These changes weakened the traditional main bank system,which in turn hindered the economic structural transformation and upgrading.This is reflected in the per capita GDP treatment effect,which began to decline from 1992,reaching 787.16 international dollars by 1996.Drawing lessons from history,we argue that China's strategy of gradually mitigating financial market risks is both rational and effective.
关键词
广场协议/合成控制法/金融市场稳定/中美贸易摩擦
Key words
Plaza Accord/synthetic control method/financial market stability/Sino-US trade friction
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