Analysis of late blight infection patterns in spring potatoes in Chongqing using the CARAH simulation model
Late blight is the primary disease affecting potato yields in China.Research on the epidemiological characteristics of potato late blight under mountainous,three-dimensional climatic conditions is of great theoretical and practical significance for early warning,prevention,and control of disease.This study utilized hourly temperature and humidity data from 260 surface meteorological stations in Chongqing,collected from 2019 to 2023,to simulate late blight infection using the CARAH late blight modelling approach.Based on the simulation,we analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of late blight infection frequency,severity,and critical infection cycle time in spring potatoes in Chongqing.Simulation accuracy was tested using microclimate monitoring data from potato fields in Wuxi county in 2022.The results showed that the FAR and PO for late blight infection simulated with hourly surface meteorological observations were lower 20％,suggesting good overall accuracy.The five-year meteorological data simulation results showed that Chongqing's climatic conditions are conducive to the development of late blight in spring potatoes.Early-and late-maturing varieties were generally infested by 4-8 generations(11-20 times)and 8-12 generations(21-40 times)during the cultivation period,respectively,with the severity of infection showing a"bipolarization"trend,displaying a clear pattern of mild and severe infections.The key late blight infection cycle started from early March to late April(1st of 3rd generation)and from late March to mid-May(1st of 5th generation),with peaks occurring in late March and mid-April.The spatial distribution of late blight infection in spring potatoes showed obvious heterogeneity.The northeastern main production area experienced fewer generations and times of late blight infection,with fewer instances of severe infection compared to other production areas,making it the area with the lightest infection.The onset of the key infection cycle was delayed with increasing altitude,occurring earlier in the central and western hilly and low-mountain regions,and later in the Wuling Mountains in the southeastern part and the Daba Mountains in the northeastern part of the country.
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