Prediction of suitable habitat distribution and potential impact of climate change on distribution patterns of Cupressus gigantea
Aims The growth and survival patterns of species might be affected by global climate change.Predicting changes of the potential range of geographic distribution for a certain species under climate change is important to understand the response of the species to climate change,and helps to formulate scientific conservation strategies for the species.Cupressus gigantea is an endemic species of both the Yarlung Zangbo River and one of the first class National Protection Wild Plants.However,this species faces dual pressures from resource development and climate change.We here research the distribution pattern on the both side of the Yarlung Zangbo River from Nang County to Danniang Town of Nyingchi.Methods In this investigation,we simulated the habitat suitability of C.gigantea under current and two climate change scenarios from 2081 to 2100(SSP5-8.5:high emission scenario and SSP 1-2.6:low emission scenario)in Xizang by using maximum entropy models(MaxEnt),generalized liner models(GLM)and generalized additive models(GAM)with ArcGIS spatial analysis based on the current actual geographical distribution information.All the data were obtained by field investigation,with topographic factor variables and environmental data being collected or predicted under current and future climatic conditions,respectively.Important findings The results of the study show that:(1)The potential geographical distribution of C.gigantea was narrow,with the suitable distribution areas being concentrated in Gyaca County to Gongbo'gyamda County,through which the Yarlung Zangbo River in Xizang.And others were scatterly distributed in Lhünze County,Gonggar County,and Cona County in eastern Xizang.(2)Environmental factors which had significant impacts on the potential geographic distribution of C.gigantea were the average air temperature of the coldest quarter,temperature seasonality,mean of monthly(maximum temperature-minimum temperature),and altitude with suitable ranges of-1.62-2.14 ℃,565.29-603.78,11.66-12.97 ℃ and 2 898-3 550 m,respectively.(3)The general suitable area of C.gigantea under future climate change scenarios tended to expand compared with the potential geographic distribution area,and its expansion of the suitable area range of C.gigantea under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario was much higher than the SSP1-2.6 climate scenario.(4)The center of mass in the future scenario displayed an overall trend to the southwest,and the distribution area of C.gigantea also showed a trend to the southwest of the middle reaches of the Southwest Yarlung Zangbo River.Our findings provided the scientific significance and practical guidance for investigating key environmental factors for the growth,restoration and conservation of C.gigantea.
climate changeCupressus giganteapotential distribution area modelingmaximum entropy model(MaxEnt)generalized liner model(GLM)generalized additive model(GAM)suitable analysis
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