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蒙古扁桃潜在地理分布对气候变化的响应

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
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为了解蒙古高原第三纪孑遗珍稀濒危物种蒙古扁桃(Amygdalus mongolica)潜在分布特征及其对未来气候变化的响应，利用121个蒙古扁桃种群分布点数据，选取气候和土壤变量，通过在R软件Biomod2建模平台构建物种综合适宜生境模型(CHS)，模拟当前气候条件和预测未来两个时期(2050S和2090S)共3种不同气候情景下(SSP1-2。6、SSP3-7。0和SSP5-8。5)蒙古扁桃的潜在分布、时空演变特征及适宜生境迁移。结果显示:气候适宜性模型(EM)的TSS＞0。75，分布限制模型(Li)的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)＞0。90，表明选择综合适宜生境模型能精确地模拟不同气候情景蒙古扁桃潜在地理分布特征。当前气候条件下蒙古扁桃的适宜生境面积为64。00万 km2，占全国总面积的6。67%，主要分布于蒙甘宁等地，少量分布于青海、新疆、陕西、山西、河北等地。未来(2050S、2090S)SSP1-2。6、SSP3-7。0、SSP5-8。5三种气候情景下，蒙古扁桃的适宜生境面积均呈现出减少趋势，且2090S不同气候情景下适宜生境面积均小于2050S。蒙古扁桃适宜生境质心整体上有逐步向西和向高纬度地区迁移的趋势。
Response of Potential Geographic Distribution of Amygdalus mongolica to Climate Change
To understand the distribution characteristics of Amygdalus mongolica,a rare and endangered Tertiary in the Mongolian Plateau,and its response to future climatic change,climate and soil variables with 121 population distribution points of A.mongolica were selected,and the comprehensive habitat suitability model(CHS)in the R software Biomod2 modeling platform was constructed,which was used to simulate and predict suitable habitat under the current climatic condition and three different future climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5)in the future(2050S and 2090S),and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics was analyzed,and the migration pattern of suitable habitat was explored.The results showed that the TSS of the climate suitability model(ensemble model)was＞0.75,the ROC of the distribution limitation model was＞0.90,which indicated that the comprehensive habitat suitability model selected in this study might accurately simulate the potential geographical distribution characteristics of A.mongolica under different climate scenarios.The suitable habitat area of A.mongolica at present was 64.00×104 km2,mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia,Gansu and Ningxia,a small number distribution in Qinghai,Xinjiang,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Hebei and other places.The suitable habitat area of A.mongolica showed a decreasing trend under three climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)in the future,and the suitable habitat area under different climate scenarios in 2090S was smaller than that in 2050S.Its suitable distribution area extended to the west and higher latitudes as a whole.

Amygdalus mongolicaclimate changecomprehensive habitat suitability modelsuitable habitat

贺晓慧、高健、朱丽、郝瑞敏、黄磊、朱晋、程莉、周洁

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内蒙古科技大学包头师范学院生态环境学院,包头 014030

中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室, 兰州 730000

蒙古扁桃 气候变化 综合适宜生境模型 适宜生境

国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目内蒙古自然科学基金项目包头师范学院黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展研究院科研项目包头市科技计划项目

41901063523790292023QN04014BSYHY2022082019C3003-2-1-8

2024

10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2024.02.003

植物研究
东北林业大学

植物研究

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.877
ISSN：1673-5102
年,卷(期)：2024.44(2)
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