Long-term and Short-term Uncertainty of Fiscal Policy,Corporate Innovation Decision-making,and Total Factor Productivity
This paper measures the long-term and short-term fiscal policy uncertainty by constructing a component GARCH model that includes the fiscal policy response function.It deduces the causal effect of long-term and short-term fiscal policy uncertainty on total factor productivity based on the panel data of Chinese A-share listed companies,and analyzes the internal mechanism from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The study reveals that the influence of long-term and short-term fiscal policy uncertainty on total factor productivity differs.Long-term fiscal policy uncertainty contributes to the improvement of total factor productivity,while short-term fiscal policy uncertainty diminishes it.Enterprise innovation decision-making emerges as a critical mechanism through which long-term and short-term fiscal policy uncertainty affects total factor productivity.Long-term fiscal policy uncertainty encourages enterprises to opt for increased innovation,while short-term fiscal policy uncertainty prompts them to defer innovation.Short-term fiscal policy uncertainty exerts a greater negative impact on the total factor productivity of non-state-owned enterprises,whereas long-term fiscal policy uncertainty shows no differential impact on the total factor productivity of enterprises with different ownership attributes.
万方数据
维普
