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子代技能溢价对亲代生育率的影响

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子代技能溢价使子代工资率在高技术部门人力资本门槛值处跃升,为将子女人力资本水平提高至预期门槛值处以获得最大的效用,大多数中等收入群体(以及少数子女天赋较低的高收入群体和子女天赋较高的低收入群体)会在子女教育方面进行额外的支出.数量-质量权衡下,该群体的生育率低于其余群体,且对子女教育额外支出越高的群体,生育率越低.同时,子代技能溢价程度的提高会提高该群体占比,这不仅会降低该群体的平均生育率,也会降低社会平均生育率;一般情况下,子代人力资本门槛值的提高也具有与上述相同的影响,但如果子代技能溢价程度很低或者子代人力资本门槛值很高,该群体占比会降低、社会平均生育率会提高,不过该情况现实中极为罕见.因此,在合理降低人力资本门槛值、适度降低技能溢价程度的同时加大公共教育投入,能够成为提高生育率的有效政策选择.
The Effect of Offspring's Skill Premium on Parental Fertility
Wage of offspring jump at the threshold of human capital in high-skill sectors due to skill premiums.In order to maximize their own utility,most middle-income parents(as well as a few high-income parents with less gifted children and low-income parents with more talented children)make additional investments in their children's education in order to bring children's human capital up to the desired thresholds.Under quantity-quality trade-off,the fertility of these parents is lower than the rest,and the higher the additional expenditure on children's education,the lower the parental fertility.Further,an increase in the skill premium of the offspring leads to lower fertility for a higher proportion of parents,which reduces the average fertility of the society.In general,an increase in the human capital threshold of the offspring has the same effect as described above.But if the skill premium of the offspring is very low or if the human capital threshold of the offspring is very high,the share of these parents decreases and the mean fertility of the society increases,although this is very rare in reality.Thus,increasing public investment in education while lowering the human capital threshold and reducing the extent of skill premium can be an effective policy for raising fertility.

Skill premiumFertilityQuantity-quality trade-off

杨琬琨、金刚、张霁雯

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辽宁大学公共管理学院、人口研究所

技能溢价 生育率 数量-质量权衡

国家社会科学基金重大项目国家社会科学基金一般项目辽宁省"兴辽英才计划"

22&ZD19522BRK013XLYC2004013

2024

中央财经大学学报
中央财经大学

中央财经大学学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.238
ISSN:1000-1549
年,卷(期):2024.(6)